{"id":261803,"date":"2017-06-23T06:00:40","date_gmt":"2017-06-23T13:00:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/?p=261803"},"modified":"2017-06-23T18:06:15","modified_gmt":"2017-06-24T01:06:15","slug":"usa-swimming-nats-predictions-anthony-ervin-in-trouble-in-50-free","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/usa-swimming-nats-predictions-anthony-ervin-in-trouble-in-50-free\/","title":{"rendered":"USA Swimming Nats Predictions: Anthony Ervin in Trouble in 50 Free?"},"content":{"rendered":"

By David Rieder.<\/em><\/p>\n

At Olympic Trials last year, the final session of the meet consisted of just two races: the women\u2019s 50 free and men\u2019s 1500 free. The sparsely-attended final night then featured a Circe de Solei performance followed by the announcement of the Olympic team.<\/p>\n

This year, night five will be all for World Championship Trials, and while there will be no performance, the official announcement of the U.S. squad bound for Budapest will surely be an exciting affair.<\/p>\n

And thankfully, fans will have more than just two races to take in. In fact, there will be six.<\/p>\n

Event schedule for day five:<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u2022 Women\u2019s 1500 free
\n\u2022 Women\u2019s 200 IM
\n\u2022 Men\u2019s 200 IM
\n\u2022 Men\u2019s 800 free
\n\u2022 Women\u2019s 50 free
\n\u2022 Men\u2019s 50 free<\/p>\n

1. Katie Ledecky finishes her week at Nationals without a world record.<\/h3>\n

Crazy, huh? The idea of Ledecky making it through an entire national competition without a world record?<\/p>\n

Actually, it\u2019s not so far-fetched. She didn\u2019t break any world records at the 2016 Olympic Trials, coming up just short in both the 400 and 800 free after going out fast and swimming ahead of record-pace for much of the race.<\/p>\n

\"katie-ledecky-stanford-arizona-state-dual-meet\"

Photo Courtesy: Matt Rubel of Rubel Photography<\/p><\/div>\n

Every year since she made her first Olympic team at age 15, Ledecky has posted substantial drops from the trials meet to the championship meet. This year, with only three weeks in between Nationals and Worlds, it seems likely her preparation will be geared towards Worlds\u2014especially since Ledecky should have no trouble qualifying for the team in any of her main events.<\/p>\n

She might not end up swimming the mile at Nationals, as only the event\u2019s winner will be selected for the Worlds team. If Ledecky wins the 800 free as expected, she will have first choice of swimming the 1500 as well come Budapest.<\/p>\n

If she does compete on the final day, the mile would be her best shot at breaking the world record. Earlier this month in Santa Clara, Ledecky posted a time of 15:35.65, less than 10 seconds off her world record of 15:25.48 from back in 2015. But it’s most likely that Ledecky’s world record chase for 2017 will wait until Budapest.<\/p>\n

2. Texas Longhorns Cox and Licon claim No. 2 spots in 200 IM.<\/h3>\n

This year at Nationals, the women\u2019s and men\u2019s 200 IM will be missing some stalwart names: Four-time Olympic gold medalist Michael Phelps<\/strong> (retired) and four-time World Champion Ryan Lochte<\/strong> (suspended) are both absent, and for the women, the past two Olympic bronze medalists, Maya DiRado<\/strong> and Caitlin Leverenz<\/strong>, have both hung up their suits.<\/p>\n

But the favorites in each event look like medal contenders should they make it to Budapest. On the women\u2019s side, there\u2019s Melanie<\/strong> Margalis<\/strong>, the fourth-place finisher in the women\u2019s 200 IM at last year\u2019s Olympics, while\u00a0Chase Kalisz<\/strong> highlights the men\u2019s race. Kalisz was the Olympic silver medalist in the 400 IM in Rio and is currently ranked fourth in the world in the 200 IM.<\/p>\n

\"IMG_1688

Photo Courtesy: Andy Ringgold \/ Aringo Photos<\/p><\/div>\n

Behind them, the battles for No. 2 could get interesting. Ella Eastin<\/strong> and Madisyn Cox<\/strong> won silver and bronze, respectively, in the event at Short Course Worlds, and they will face off again for a spot in Budapest. Likewise, Josh Prenot<\/strong> and Will Licon<\/strong> have become familiar rivals in the breaststrokes and IMs at just about every major meet in recent years.<\/p>\n

Cox finished fourth in the 200 IM at Trials, while Eastin faded to sixth. Neither Licon nor Prenot\u2014nor Kalisz, for that matter\u2014actually swam the 200 IM at Trials, with Phelps and Lochte seemingly guaranteed the two spots on the Olympic team.<\/p>\n

There will be others to watch in both races (Michael Andrew<\/strong>,\u00a0Bethany Galat<\/strong>, etc.), but thesee two duals will be especially intriguing. Cox should be coming after Eastin on the back half, while both Licon and Prenot are breaststroke specialists who finish strong\u2014but the coin flips here go to the two Texas-trained athletes, Cox and Licon.<\/p>\n

3. Olympic gold medalist Anthony Ervin doesn\u2019t qualify for the 50 free.<\/h3>\n

It sounds stunning, that the Olympic gold medalist in an event might not qualify to swim it at the World Championships, but it\u2019s not as crazy as it might sound\u2014if only because of the American depth in the 50 free.<\/p>\n

The fastest man in the U.S. so far this year is Nathan Adrian<\/strong> (22.09), who joined Ervin on the Olympic podium in Rio with a bronze medal. Right behind him is Caeleb Dressel<\/strong> (22.13), the Florida senior-to-be, who is the fastest man in history in the 50-yard free by almost a quarter-second.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s a really solid top two, and both would likely go to Budapest as medal contenders. In fact, those two are the selections to make the team in the final event of Nationals. But if it\u2019s not them, how about Michael Chadwick<\/strong> or Ryan Held<\/strong> or Cullen Jones<\/strong>?\u00a0Andrew has been impressive this year in the splash-and-dash, although he will have to pull a double with the 200 IM and 50 free on the same night.<\/p>\n

Ervin actually enters Nationals with the 16th-fastest time in the country so far this year. Regardless of whether he makes Worlds or not, he will head immediately after Nationals to Israel to swim in the Maccabiah Games. At 36 years old, he is by no means finished in the sport, but it will be tough sledding for him this year.<\/p>\n

Event Predictions<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Women\u2019s 1500 Free<\/strong>
\n1. Katie Ledecky<\/p>\n

Women\u2019s 200 IM<\/strong>
\n1. Melanie Margalis
\n2. Madisyn Cox<\/p>\n

Men\u2019s 200 IM<\/strong>
\n1. Chase Kalisz
\n2. Will Licon<\/p>\n

Men\u2019s 800 Free<\/strong>
\n1. Clark Smith<\/p>\n

Women\u2019s 50 Free<\/strong>
\n1. Simone Manuel
\n2. Abbey Weitzeil<\/p>\n

Men\u2019s 50 Free<\/strong>
\n1. Caeleb Dressel
\n2. Nathan Adrian<\/p>\n

If you missed any predictions from throughout the week, don’t forget to look back through all four previous posts:<\/p>\n