{"id":261118,"date":"2017-06-19T06:00:34","date_gmt":"2017-06-19T13:00:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/?p=261118"},"modified":"2017-06-21T11:43:20","modified_gmt":"2017-06-21T18:43:20","slug":"3-bold-predictions-for-us-world-championship-trials-day-one","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/3-bold-predictions-for-us-world-championship-trials-day-one\/","title":{"rendered":"USA Swimming Nats Predictions: Ledecky to Pull Double Duty on Day One"},"content":{"rendered":"

By David Rieder.<\/em><\/p>\n

Yep, it\u2019s that time again. The World Championships begin in five weeks, and the U.S. is preparing to pick its team to send to Budapest. U.S. World Championship Trials will be a slightly smaller affair than Olympic Trials\u2014the meet itself will skip the semi-final round and be three days shorter, and the crowd will be about one-fourth the size\u2014but the qualifying standard should be just as intense.<\/p>\n

The top two swimmers in each Olympic event qualify to go to Budapest, plus the top six in the women\u2019s and men\u2019s 100 and 200 free.<\/p>\n

In the non-Olympic events\u2014a category that still includes the men\u2019s 800 free and women\u2019s 1500 free, even though both were recently added to the Olympic program\u2014only the top finisher in each event earns a spot on the team.<\/p>\n

Exactly how bold will the predictions be? Well, we\u2019ll see. Is predicting Katie Ledecky<\/strong> to win a race considered bold?<\/p>\n

A disclaimer: just because we didn\u2019t predict you to make the team does not mean we don\u2019t like you.<\/p>\n

Without further ado, let\u2019s get to the predictions, one post for each of the five days of competition at the IUPUI Natatorium in Indianapolis. Each post will include three explained predictions followed by a race-by-race breakdown of who gets on the World team.<\/p>\n

Event schedule for day one:<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u2022 Women\u2019s 200 fly
\n\u2022 Men\u2019s 200 fly
\n\u2022 Women\u2019s 100 free
\n\u2022 Men\u2019s 100 free
\n\u2022 Women\u2019s 800 free
\n\u2022 Men\u2019s 1500 free<\/p>\n

1. Business as usual\u2014and spots on the World team in two events\u2014for Katie Ledecky.<\/h3>\n

The program of events on day one does offer some potential conflicts for top swimmers\u2014Jack Conger<\/strong> and Kelsi Worrell<\/strong> will both have to decide between the 200 fly, 100 free or both\u2014but it\u2019s a safe bet Ledecky goes for both freestyle events, the 100 with a spot on the 400 free relay in mind.<\/p>\n

\"katie-ledecky-\"

Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick<\/p><\/div>\n

And really, why wouldn\u2019t she? She will swim the 100 first, and she has the talent in that event to finish in the top six. She\u2019s proven she can handle a double, most recently when she broke an American record in the 400-yard IM at the Pac-12 championships and then finished a close second in the 200 free less than a half-hour later.<\/p>\n

But it\u2019s not like making the team in the 800 should be too much of a challenge for Ledecky. She won Olympic gold in the event by 11 seconds and is 14 seconds faster than anyone else in the field, and Leah Smith has a sizeable advantage over anyone else.<\/p>\n

So even if Ledecky shows some fatigue in the 800, you still have to like her chances of making the Worlds team.<\/p>\n

2. Ryan Murphy makes the World Champs team in the 400 free relay.<\/h3>\n

Oh, was the Ledecky prediction not bold enough? How about this?<\/p>\n

\"ryan-murphy-\"

Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick<\/p><\/div>\n

And no, it\u2019s not a joke. Five American men have distinguished themselves in the 100 free so far this year, and in the full predictions section below, all five of their names are listed. The sixth choice is Murphy, a three-time Olympic gold medalist in backstroke who has a top time so far this year of 49.60.<\/p>\n

He didn\u2019t swim freestyle at Olympic Trials or even at the NCAA championships due to conflicts with his backstroke events, but he has shown some relay skill, splitting 1:32.08 on Cal\u2019s 800 free relay and 41.73 on the free.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s an outside-the-box pick, but with Conger facing a 200 fly-100 free double and up-and-coming Justin<\/strong> Ress<\/strong>, Michael<\/strong> Jensen<\/strong> and Maxime Rooney<\/strong> all unproven, it\u2019s not out of the question.<\/p>\n

3. Even without Jordan Wilimovsky, someone breaks 15:00 in the men\u2019s 1500.<\/h3>\n

Last year, Connor Jaeger<\/strong> won an Olympic silver medal in the 1500 free, and Wilimovsky finished fourth in the final after sitting third for much of the race. The two men are the fastest two Americans in history. But this year, Jaeger is retired, and Wilimovsky is skipping Nationals as he prepares to race open water only at World Champs<\/a>.<\/p>\n

NCAA champion Clark Smith<\/strong> isn\u2019t swimming the mile, either\u2014he admitted that earlier this month<\/a>. Michael McBroom<\/strong> is retired. So that leaves\u2026 who, exactly?<\/p>\n

Aside from Jaeger and Wilimovsky, the two fastest Americans since the start of 2016 are True Sweetser<\/strong> and Robert<\/strong> Finke<\/strong>. Sweetser was sixth in the event at the Short Course World Championships in December, while Finke was the Junior Pan Pac Champion in the event.<\/p>\n

Neither are proven veterans\u2014Sweetser just finished his first year at Stanford, while Finke is entering his senior year of high school\u2014but they may just be the best options for the U.S., at least right now. A prediction to see one (or both) of them under 15:00 may be bold, but, hey, read the title.<\/p>\n

Event Predictions<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Women\u2019s 200 Fly<\/strong>
\n1. Hali Flickinger
\n2. Katie McLaughlin<\/p>\n

Men\u2019s 200 Fly<\/strong>
\n1. Michael Phelps\u2026\u00a0Oh, wait…<\/a><\/p>\n

1. Jack Conger
\n2. Chase Kalisz<\/p>\n

Women\u2019s 100 Free<\/strong>
\n1. Simone Manuel
\n2. Abbey Weitzeil
\n3. Katie Ledecky
\n4. Mallory Comerford
\n5. Amanda Weir
\n6. Lia Neal<\/p>\n

Men\u2019s 100 Free<\/strong>
\n1. Nathan Adrian
\n2. Caeleb Dressel
\n3. Ryan Held
\n4. Michael Chadwick
\n5. Blake Pieroni
\n6. Ryan Murphy<\/p>\n

Women\u2019s 800 Free<\/strong>
\n1. Katie Ledecky
\n2. Leah Smith<\/p>\n

Men\u2019s 1500 Free<\/strong>
\n1. True Sweetser
\n2. Robert Finke<\/p>\n

Agree? Disagree? Let us know in the comments section below, and check back throughout the week for more bold predictions.<\/p>\n

All commentaries are the opinion of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Swimming World Magazine nor its staff.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By David Rieder. Yep, it\u2019s that time again. The World Championships begin in five weeks, and the U.S. is preparing to pick its team to send to Budapest. U.S. 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