{"id":255076,"date":"2017-05-08T06:00:05","date_gmt":"2017-05-08T13:00:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/?p=255076"},"modified":"2017-05-12T12:42:26","modified_gmt":"2017-05-12T19:42:26","slug":"arena-pro-swim-series-to-race-or-not-to-race","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/arena-pro-swim-series-to-race-or-not-to-race\/","title":{"rendered":"Arena Pro Swim Series: To Race or Not to Race?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bob Bowman<\/strong>, the longtime coach of Michael Phelps<\/strong> and the head coach of the 2016 U.S. men\u2019s Olympic swim team, has a saying: \u201cThose who know don\u2019t predict, and those who predict don\u2019t know.\u201d At least when it comes to the various Arena Pro Swim Series meets, he\u2019s right on point.<\/p>\n

Over the years, we at Swimming World<\/em> have typically ignored that advice and made plenty of predictions. Some of those have been correct, such as when we picked the Stanford women<\/a> and Texas men<\/a> to sweep the NCAA championships this year.<\/p>\n

Others, not so much\u2014like picking\u00a0Cate Campbell<\/strong> to win Olympic gold in the 50 free in Rio<\/a>, with\u00a0defending World Champion Bronte Campbell<\/strong> and 2012 gold medalist Ranomi Kromowidjojo<\/strong>\u00a0winning silver and bronze, respectively. As it turned out, that trio finished fifth, seventh and sixth, respectively.<\/p>\n

But at least all three were in the race, and Cate Campbell and Kromowidjojo both finished within a tenth of bronze medalist Aliaksandra Herasimenia<\/strong>. When it comes to in-season meets\u2014for instance, this past weekend\u2019s Arena Pro Swim Series meet in Atlanta\u2014even the psych sheet guarantees nothing.<\/p>\n

Want to make predictions for a meet like that? Good luck.<\/p>\n

Given the task of previewing the competition, it made sense to highlight the women\u2019s 100 free, where co-Olympic gold medalists Penny Oleksiak<\/strong> and Simone Manuel<\/strong> were slated to square off for the first time since Rio.<\/p>\n

\"manuel-oleksiak-gold-olympic-record-100-freestyle-finals-cochampions-tie-rio\"

Photo Courtesy: Erich Schlegel-USA TODAY Sports<\/p><\/div>\n

Elsewhere, the breaststroke events figured to be standout races with Katie Meili<\/strong> squaring off with Molly Hannis<\/strong> and Kevin Cordes<\/strong> with Cody<\/strong> Miller<\/strong>. Conor Dwyer<\/strong> would get a chance to swim the 200 free for the first time since Rio after he was disqualified from his last meet in Mesa for no-showing an evening swim.<\/p>\n

A preview story covering all that<\/a> was posted Wednesday afternoon. Come Friday morning, Oleksiak, Hannis, Cordes, Dwyer and Nathan Adrian<\/strong> had all either scratched or simply not shown up behind the blocks. The Atlanta meet actually marked the second time this year that Oleksiak has entered a Pro Swim Series meet and pulled out. (She did the same in Indianapolis in early March.)<\/p>\n

But what do those swimmers have to lose by not showing up? Not much, aside from the nonrefundable meet entry fees and, for professionals, a shot at prize money. There\u2019s no selection at stake, no titles on the line.<\/p>\n

And even for those who do show up, it\u2019s impossible to predict who will be at what phase of their training and thus who will be more race-ready at one exact point in the season. And that\u2019s fine\u2014after all, these meets are simply tune-up opportunities for what\u2019s to come.<\/p>\n

Bottom line: in the long run, how elite swimmers stack up at these in-season meets\u2014really, any long course meet that\u2019s not a selection meet or a World Championship-level meet\u2014does not matter.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s not to say these mid-season Pro Series meets are worthless\u2014far from it. Swimmers have chances in Atlanta and elsewhere to refine technical details and race strategies and get top-notch racing experience before this summer\u2019s all-important National championships.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think I respond well to racing because I always forget year-to-year what I\u2019m supposed to do,\u201d Tom Shields<\/strong> said after winning the men\u2019s 100 fly in a season-best time of 52.09<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"atlanta

Photo Courtesy: Caroline Kosciusko<\/p><\/div>\n

\u201cThe most important thing is getting those technical aspects down, and the speed will come later,\u201d Manuel said. \u201cI think my speed always comes at the end, and focusing on those technical details will help me go faster. I\u2019m also focusing a lot on my second 50 and keeping my second 50 and first 50 splits closer.\u201d<\/p>\n

Of course, even if the times were not of utmost importance, Manuel has to be pleased with her start to the long course season. She again swam under 54 in the 100 free (twice)<\/a>, posted a blistering 24.66 in the 50 free<\/a> and almost swam her best time in the 200 free<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Ali DeLoof<\/strong> twice broke 1:00 in the women\u2019s 100 back<\/a>, while Lilly King<\/strong> looked strong<\/a> in her first long course racing opportunities since the Olympics. On the men\u2019s side, Chase Kalisz<\/strong> provided arguably the most impressive swim of the meet when he broke 4:10 in the 400 IM<\/a>.<\/p>\n

All impressive results and all positive indicators of good things to come over the next few months. But elsewhere, Olympic gold medalist\u00a0Ryan Murphy\u00a0<\/strong>was touched out in the men’s 100 bac<\/a>k, finishing three hundredths behind Japan’s\u00a0Ryosuke Irie<\/strong>. By no means does that mean Murphy should be panicking about his prospects for the summer ahead.<\/p>\n

Regardless of what happened this weekend in Atlanta or how anyone swims at any other meet before June 27, the success of any elite-level swimmer\u2019s season will be judged on how they perform Indianapolis at U.S. Nationals, a.k.a. World Championship Trials.<\/p>\n

The meet might not have quite the prestige, the gravity or the fan attendance of last year\u2019s Olympic Trials, but qualifying for the World Championships in Budapest is the ultimate goal in the non-Olympic years. Unlike the Atlanta meet, no one will be dropping out last-minute.<\/p>\n

Sure, the Arena Pro Series meets do provide some incentives for professionals in the form of prize money, but the financial stakes are even higher at Nationals, where prize money is doubled and each U.S. swimmer who makes Worlds earns a $7500 bonus.<\/p>\n

As far as in-the-pool competition, this summer in Budapest will mark swimmers\u2019 last chance to prove themselves among the best competition in the world for two years. For all but a few (i.e., Cate Campbell<\/a>), it\u2019s the circled meet on the calendar, just like the Olympics were last year.<\/p>\n

Had a bad race at a Pro Swim Series meet or skipped the meet altogether? Go get \u2019em next time. But if anything goes wrong at Nationals, see you in 2019, when the World Championships move to Gwangju, South Korea.<\/p>\n

One year from now, few will remember who won what race at the Arena Pro Swim Series meet in Atlanta. But as for who made the World Championships team and went on to shine in Budapest, that\u2019s a whole different story.<\/p>\n

All commentaries are the opinion of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Swimming World Magazine nor its staff.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bob Bowman, the longtime coach of Michael Phelps and the head coach of the 2016 U.S. men\u2019s Olympic swim team, has a saying: \u201cThose who know don\u2019t predict, and those<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":254847,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"dois","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[3,17,61052,7],"tags":[60338,27638,16253,47918,10818,27257,26550,25490,26126,24850,25272,25396,25176,42783,6302,26908,60127,25038,53577,35244,25400,25424],"class_list":["post-255076","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured","category-commentary","category-morning-splash","category-usa","tag-2017-arena-pro-swim-series-atlanta","tag-ali-deloof","tag-aliaksandra-herasimenia","tag-arena-pro-swim-series","tag-bob-bowman","tag-bronte-campbell","tag-cate-campbell","tag-chase-kalisz","tag-cody-miller","tag-conor-dwyer","tag-david-rieder","tag-katie-meili","tag-kevin-cordes","tag-lilly-king","tag-michael-phelps","tag-molly-hannis","tag-morning-splash","tag-nathan-adrian","tag-penny-oleksiak","tag-ranomi-kromowidjojo","tag-simone-manuel","tag-tom-shields"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"yoast_head":"\r\nArena 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