{"id":219358,"date":"2016-08-25T10:05:55","date_gmt":"2016-08-25T17:05:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/?p=219358"},"modified":"2016-08-25T10:05:55","modified_gmt":"2016-08-25T17:05:55","slug":"looking-back-on-predictions-for-the-olympic-games-part-two","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/looking-back-on-predictions-for-the-olympic-games-part-two\/","title":{"rendered":"Looking Back on Predictions for the Olympic Games, Part Two"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>By David Rieder.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>After day four of the Olympic Games in Rio, the\u00a0<em>Swimming World<\/em> prediction machine was rolling.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/looking-back-on-predictions-for-the-olympic-games\/\" target=\"_blank\">Part one of our predictions analysis<\/a> showed that we nailed 12 of 16 winners in the first half of the Olympic swimming competition, including a clean sweep on day four.<\/p>\n<p>Unfortunately, that magic was not to be continued. Read below to see what went wrong from day five through day eight.<\/p>\n<h3>Day Five: Not So Good<\/h3>\n<p>The trouble started promptly on day five. In the first event of the night, we picked <strong>Josh Prenot<\/strong> to win the men\u2019s 200 breast. Prenot ended up with the silver, seven one-hundredths behind the man in lane eight, <strong>Dmitriy Balandin<\/strong>\u00a0of\u00a0Kazakhstan\u2014a nation which had never won an Olympic swimming medal. We did not predict one here, either.<\/p>\n<p>Then there was the women\u2019s 200 fly, and it should not have been too surprising to see <strong>Mireia Belmonte<\/strong>\u2014the silver medalist four years ago\u2014atop the medal podium. We did not pick Belmonte to get on the podium, but we did count on good swims from <strong>Madeline Groves<\/strong> and <strong>Natsumi Hoshi<\/strong>, both of whom were in our\u00a0top three.<\/p>\n<p>We picked <strong>Cameron McEvoy<\/strong> to win the 100 free and break a 48-year streak of Australian futility in the event. Of course, we had picked the Aussies to have won a lot of gold medals at this point, but \u201cAdvance Australia Fair\u201d had played only twice all week up to that point and not at all since day one.<\/p>\n<p>McEvoy proceeded to finish seventh\u2014only for 18-year-old countryman <strong>Kyle Chalmers<\/strong> to win gold.<\/p>\n<p>Order was finally restored in the last event of the night, as the American women won the 800 free relay. <strong>Missy Franklin<\/strong> was struggling, so the U.S. coaches subbed in <strong>Maya DiRado<\/strong>. Australia had a slight lead at 600 meters, but <strong>Katie Ledecky<\/strong> was anchoring for the Americans. The U.S. losing this relay would have been one of the bigger upsets of the Games. Thankfully, for the sake of our predictions, that did not happen.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Winners picked correctly: 1 of 4<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong> Cumulative: 13 of 20<\/strong><\/p>\n<h3>Day Six: \u201cDid You Really Expect Us to Predict a Tie?\u201d<\/h3>\n<p>So day five did not too well. Day six looked like a big rebound day\u2014for a while. <strong>Rie Kaneto<\/strong> won the women\u2019s 200 breast\u2014as predicted\u2014to start things off, and then came the men\u2019s 200 back. We picked <strong>Mitch Larkin<\/strong> over <strong>Ryan Murphy<\/strong>, and the reverse happened, but that had seemed like a strong possibility with Murphy heading in with some momentum.<\/p>\n<p>At that point, we felt good about the possibility of a three-for-four day. <strong>Michael Phelps<\/strong> had looked strong through the first two rounds of the 200 IM, and he walloped the field in that event on his way to a fourth-straight gold medal in the event\u2014and <strong>Kosuke Hagino<\/strong> picked up the predicted silver.<\/p>\n<p>Last but not least was the women\u2019s 100 free. <strong>Cate Campbell<\/strong> was the overwhelming favorite, having broken the world record in the event a month earlier and set Olympic records in both the prelims and semifinals. After a rocky start, Campbell exploded, and she flipped well under her own world record pace at the 50.<\/p>\n<p>And then with 15 meters to go, she fell apart, falling all the way to seventh. And it wasn\u2019t <strong>Sarah Sjostrom<\/strong> winning the gold, or defending gold medalist <strong>Ranomi Kromowidjojo<\/strong>, or Cate\u2019s World Champion sister <strong>Bronte Campbell<\/strong>. It was a tie.<\/p>\n<p>A tie between Canada\u2019s <strong>Penny Oleksiak<\/strong> and the USA\u2019s <strong>Simone Manuel<\/strong>. Yeah, we missed that one. But at least Sjostrom\u2014who we picked to medal\u2014got the bronze.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Winners picked correctly: 2 of 4<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong> Cumulative: 15 of 24<\/strong><\/p>\n<h3>Day Seven: Upset City!<\/h3>\n<p>The penultimate day of Olympic swimming was, simply put, awesome. There was not really much time to collect one\u2019s thoughts after each final because each ensuing race brought more stunning moments.<\/p>\n<p>But swimming races are usually stunning because of either records or upsets. Ledecky broke her world record by two seconds in the 800 free\u2014so we nailed that gold medal pick (but got the other two medalists wrong).<\/p>\n<p>Our gold and silver medalist picks in the women\u2019s 200 back (<strong>Emily Seebohm<\/strong> and Franklin) missed the final, and our bronze medal pick (<strong>Katinka Hosszu<\/strong>) was upset by <strong>Maya DiRado<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Minutes later, <strong>Joseph Schooling<\/strong> shocked the world when he took down Phelps in the 100 fly, leaving Phelps in a three-way tie for silver with <strong>Chad le Clos<\/strong> and <strong>Laszlo Cseh<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Yes, that\u2019s correct\u2014a third tie for an Olympic medal. Even one of those at an Olympics is statistically unlikely, let alone three. We picked Schooling, Phelps and le Clos to medal, and Cseh was clearly the next choice\u2014after all, he came into the Olympics as the only man under 51 in the 100 fly this year. So that\u2019s something, right?<\/p>\n<p>And then there was the men\u2019s 50 free, where heavy favorite <strong>Florent Manaudou<\/strong> lost to 35-year-old <strong>Anthony Ervin<\/strong>\u2014who we did not pick to medal\u2014by one one-hundredth. Obviously, Ervin\u2019s comeback and his two gold medals 16 years apart was a great story\u2014but that does not help our predictions record.<\/p>\n<p>A fantastic night of swimming, and an awful night of predicting.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Winners picked correctly: 1 of 4<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong> Cumulative: 16 of 28<\/strong><\/p>\n<h3>Day Eight: USA Up, <em>Swimming World<\/em> Down<\/h3>\n<p>On the last night, we rebounded slightly, picking correctly the not-hard-to-pick men\u2019s 1500 and men\u2019s medley relay. <strong>Gregorio Paltrinieri<\/strong> entered with the top time in the world in the mile by five seconds, and it\u2019s pretty difficult to pick against a medley relay with Murphy, Phelps and <strong>Nathan Adrian<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>The women\u2019s medley relay went to the Americans over Australia, and Denmark edged China for the bronze. The Australians looked to have a massive advantage on the anchor leg coming into the meet, but by the time this relay rolled around, Manuel had already won gold in the 100 free. Big advantage, USA. The Americans won by two seconds, even with a substandard effort from <strong>Lilly King<\/strong> on the breaststroke leg.<\/p>\n<p>As for the women\u2019s 50 free, that went to <strong>Pernille Blume\u00a0<\/strong>by two one-hundredths over Manuel, who was another two one-hundredths ahead of <strong>Aliaksandra Herasimenia<\/strong>. That was the only race all week where none of our projected medalists (the two Campbell sisters and Kromowidjojo) made the podium.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Winners picked correctly: 3 of 4<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong> Cumulative: 19 of 32<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>So in hindsight, our picks were downright mediocre. Unlike the Americans, of course, who won a whopping six gold medals that we did not predict and massively out-performed our projection of 12 gold medals. On the flip side, we picked the Australians for eight gold medals, and they won three.<\/p>\n<p>But hey, at least we tried\u2014right?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By David Rieder. After day four of the Olympic Games in Rio, the\u00a0Swimming World prediction machine was rolling.\u00a0Part one of our predictions analysis showed that we nailed 12 of 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