{"id":211866,"date":"2016-07-10T07:00:37","date_gmt":"2016-07-10T14:00:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/?p=211866"},"modified":"2016-07-10T08:16:39","modified_gmt":"2016-07-10T15:16:39","slug":"morning-splash-looking-back-on-bold-predictions-and-olympic-trials","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/morning-splash-looking-back-on-bold-predictions-and-olympic-trials\/","title":{"rendered":"Morning Splash: Looking Back on Bold Predictions and Olympic Trials"},"content":{"rendered":"

By David Rieder<\/em><\/p>\n

U.S. Olympic Trials ended one week ago, and the swimming competition at the Olympic Games begins in 27 days. Everyone wants to know if Michael Phelps<\/strong> can add to his 18 Olympic gold medals or if Cameron McEvoy<\/strong> can crack the world record in the men\u2019s 100 free.<\/p>\n

Four years after winning four gold medals in London, will Missy Franklin<\/strong> even get onto an Olympic podium this time around? Who will steal the thunder as the dominant woman of the meet\u2014Sarah Sjostrom<\/strong>, Emily Seebohm<\/strong>, Katinka Hosszu<\/strong>, Katie Ledecky<\/strong> or Cate Campbell<\/strong>?<\/p>\n

All of those questions will be answered in due time\u2014and we at Swimming World<\/em> are already working hard on our own predictions for how those events will shake out in the full Olympic Preview due out at the end of the month.<\/p>\n

But what\u2019s the point of predictions if you aren\u2019t held accountable? In a series<\/a> of eight<\/a> bold<\/a> <\/strong>predictions<\/a>\u00a0 posts<\/a>, we picked all<\/a> 26<\/a> races<\/a> at U.S. Trials. Let\u2019s see how those went.<\/p>\n

(This will only include the top two finishers in every event that qualified for individual swims in Rio.)<\/p>\n

Nostradamus: 9<\/h3>\n
In more than one-third of the events, we were\u00a0spot-on in picking the top-two, in correct order, and that included one event on each day until the abbreviated day eight. Those events on the men\u2019s side included two Con(n)ors making the team in the 400 free and Kevin Cordes<\/strong> and Cody Miller<\/strong> grabbing spots in the 100 breast, as well as Michael Phelps<\/strong> edging Ryan Lochte<\/strong> in the 200 IM.<\/p>\n
Caeleb Dressel<\/strong> edged Ryan Held<\/strong> for the second spot by three one-hundredths in the 100 free, and Tom Shields<\/strong> also made me look good as he beat out training partner Seth Stubblefield<\/strong> by four one-hundredths in the 100 fly. For the women, we\u00a0got Ledecky<\/strong>–Smith<\/strong> in the 400 free, Ledecky-Franklin<\/strong> in the 200 free, King<\/strong>–Meili<\/strong> in the 100 breast and Adams<\/strong>–Flickinger<\/strong> in the 200 fly.<\/p>\n
First is first, and second is first: 3<\/h3>\n
It\u2019s the Olympic Trials\u2014as long as you\u2019re first or second, you make the team. The runner-up is basically the winner.<\/p>\n
Note that this apparently did not apply to the media swim. This runner-up is still bitter about that fact. \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n
In three different events we\u00a0just got the order mixed up\u2014not that the actual order matters in the long run. That includes Maya DiRado\u2019s<\/strong> victory over Elizabeth Beisel<\/strong> in the women\u2019s 400 IM, Kelsi Worrell<\/strong> getting the better of Dana Vollmer<\/strong> in the 100 fly and Abbey Weitzeil<\/strong> beating Simone Manuel<\/strong> in the 100 free.<\/p>\n
To Maya, Kelsi and Abbey: apologies for underestimating you. To Elizabeth, Dana and Simone: it does not matter, and have fun in Rio.<\/p>\n
We are the champions: 7<\/h3>\n
Forget all those great\u00a0things about second place for a moment: in these seven events we\u00a0at least nailed the winners. As with most rational human beings, we\u00a0had Phelps pegged to win the 200 fly and Ledecky the 800 free. DiRado in the women\u2019s 200 IM was not so tough a call, and neither was Connor Jaeger<\/strong> in the men\u2019s mile.<\/p>\n
Ryan Murphy<\/strong> did indeed sweep the backstrokes\u2014a two one-hundredths victory over David Plummer in the 100 back moves one more event into this category. Chase Kalisz<\/strong>\u00a0got the victory in the 400 IM\u2014and come on, how many people picked Jay Litherland<\/strong> to pull off one of the biggest upsets of the meet?<\/p>\n
Sorta Close? 5<\/h3>\nIn a further five events, we\u00a0correctly picked at least one Olympian\u2014it just wasn\u2019t the winner. Conor Dwyer<\/strong> came close to proving me correct in the men\u2019s 200 free, but he ended up one one-hundredth behind eventual winner Townley Haas<\/strong><\/a>. Kevin Cordes<\/strong> at least led most of the way in the men\u2019s 200 breast, but Josh Prenot<\/strong> had one truly incredible last 50.<\/p>\n
Missy Franklin<\/strong> made the team with a gritty finish in the women\u2019s 200 back, and Nathan Adrian<\/strong> ended up getting the touch in the men\u2019s 50 free. Manuel didn\u2019t win the women\u2019s 50, but she again got second to Weitzeil, and that was good enough.<\/p>\n
Guess Again, Melon-Head: 2<\/h3>\n
Hey, we all have bad days sometimes, right? In a whopping 7.6% of the events on the schedule, we\u00a0completely flunked. Sure, Missy Franklin<\/strong> and Natalie Coughlin<\/strong> had the most decorated r\u00e9sum\u00e9s entering the final of the women\u2019s 100 back, but they got seventh and eighth, respectively.<\/p>\n
In the women\u2019s 200 breast, we\u00a0picked the two women that finished 2015 with the top times in the country, Micah Lawrence<\/strong> and Laura Sogar<\/strong>. In fact, those two still have the top times in the country the past two years, but Lawrence got fourth and Sogar ninth at Trials as Lilly King<\/strong> and Molly Hannis<\/strong> got on the team.<\/p>\n
So 12 out of 26 events where we\u00a0picked the correct top-two, 16 out of 26 where we\u00a0got the right winner and all but two where we\u00a0got at least one Olympian correct.<\/p>\n
So the final verdict on the bold predictions? Sufficiently bold<\/strong>.<\/p>\n
Final Thoughts on Trials<\/h2>\n\n
Been thinking about this: what was the best moment of Olympic Trials? Favorite race\/best swim\/upset\/etc. Reply with thoughts. #SwimTrials16<\/a><\/p>\n
\u2014 David Rieder (@David_Rieder) July 8, 2016<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n