﻿{"id":208214,"date":"2016-06-20T09:00:06","date_gmt":"2016-06-20T16:00:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/?p=208214"},"modified":"2016-06-20T09:22:08","modified_gmt":"2016-06-20T16:22:08","slug":"3-bold-predictions-for-u-s-olympic-trials-day-five","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/3-bold-predictions-for-u-s-olympic-trials-day-five\/","title":{"rendered":"3 Bold Predictions for U.S. Olympic Trials: Day Five"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>By David Rieder<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The United States has not had the greatest success with the men\u2019s 400 free relay as of late. Since <strong>Jason Lezak\u2019s<\/strong> heroic anchor leg at the 2008 Olympics and another memorable win at the World Championships a year later, the Americans have an 0-for-gold streak running in the event.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Yannick Agnel<\/strong> overtook <strong>Ryan Lochte<\/strong> to win gold at the 2012 Olympics, and at last year\u2019s World Championships, the American men failed to make the final. Shouldn\u2019t fans be panicked about the squad\u2019s hopes for this year?<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jimmy Feigen<\/strong> says no. The silver medalist in the 100 free at the 2013 World Championships and a member of last year\u2019s 12th-place squad, Feigen <a href=\"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/video-interview-jimmy-feigen-talks-taper-and-400-free-relay\/\">expects to see<\/a> the sprinters rebound at Olympic Trials.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe 100 in the USA has been seen as a little bit weak in the past, and even now it\u2019s been seen as a little bit weak. I\u2019m for sure partly for blame,\u201d he said. \u201cI think we\u2019re really gonna come out here and shock some people at Trials and at the Olympics. I have full faith in the USA\u2014not overconfidence, not cockiness. We\u2019re the underdog, and I think we love being the underdog.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Will he be right? Read through the <strong>bold<\/strong> predictions for day five to find out!<\/p>\n<p><strong>1. Four men swim under 2:09 in the 200 breast\u2014and it will take under 2:10 to make the final.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>In my head, I\u2019ve made justifications for five guys to break 2:09, but picking even four still feels radical. Obviously it won\u2019t be too crazy to see <strong>Kevin Cordes<\/strong> under the 2:09 barrier\u2014he\u2019s been as fast as 2:07.86 at Nationals in 2014, and he was the silver medalist in the event at the World Championships last summer. He seems primed for a breakout in the 100 breast, but he is already at that elite level in the 200.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Josh Prenot<\/strong> and <strong>Nic Fink<\/strong> have both swum in the 2:08-range over the last year, and <strong>Cody Miller<\/strong> comes in just behind with an entry time of 2:09.08. Then there\u2019s <strong>Will Licon<\/strong>, who won this year\u2019s NCAA title in the 200-yard breast in 1:48.12, cutting a half-second off Cordes\u2019 American record in the event and beating Prenot by more than a second. Licon is strong off the walls, but he has more in the tank for long course than his 2:10.02 entry time suggests.<\/p>\n<p>Everyone\u2019s favorite darkhorse in this event is <strong>Reece Whitley<\/strong>, and the 6\u20198\u201d 16-year-old could make an impact here. He enters with a seed time of 2:11.30, swum in winning the B-final at last year\u2019s Summer Nationals. After Whitley realized that he and <strong>Michael Phelps<\/strong> had swum the exact same time in the event, he posed for a picture with the twice-his-age but still-shorter 18-time Olympic gold medalist.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_208215\" style=\"width: 710px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-208215\" data-attachment-id=\"208215\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/3-bold-predictions-for-u-s-olympic-trials-day-five\/rw-mp\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/vmrw8k5h.tinifycdn.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/RW-MP-e1466365370406.jpg\" data-orig-size=\"2188,1785\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"RW MP\" data-image-description=\"&lt;p&gt;RW MP&lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;Photo Courtesy: David Rieder&lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/vmrw8k5h.tinifycdn.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/RW-MP-e1466365370406-700x500.jpg\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/vmrw8k5h.tinifycdn.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/RW-MP-e1466365370406-1024x835.jpg\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-208215\" src=\"https:\/\/vmrw8k5h.tinifycdn.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/RW-MP-e1466365370406-700x500.jpg\" alt=\"RW MP\" width=\"700\" height=\"500\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-208215\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Photo Courtesy: David Rieder<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Whitley should have a nice time drop in him in Omaha to get down under the 2:10 barrier and get into the final. Whitley <a href=\"http:\/\/www.sikids.com\/si-kids\/2016\/01\/12\/reece-whitley-sportskid-year\">has received<\/a>\u00a0much <a href=\"http:\/\/espn.go.com\/olympics\/swimming\/story\/_\/id\/14806067\/reece-whitley-16-hopes-stand-olympic-trials\">deserved attention<\/a> from the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2016\/05\/10\/sports\/at-16-reece-whitley-stands-tall-in-and-out-of-water.html\">mainstream media<\/a>, but it would still be quite an upset to see him on the Olympic team this time around.<\/p>\n<p><strong>2. Schedule of events takes possible contenders out of the women\u2019s 200 fly.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Cammile Adams<\/strong> undoubtedly enters Olympic Trials as the big favorite to win the women\u2019s 200 fly after winning silver in the event at the World Championships last summer, while there are questions surrounding fellow World Championship finalist <strong>Katie McLaughlin<\/strong> after a neck injury <a href=\"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/katie-mclaughlin-keeping-things-in-perspective-after-difficult-year\/\">derailed her freshman season<\/a> at California.<\/p>\n<p>With that in mind, the second spot on the Olympic team looks be wide-open, and two names I strongly considered picking to finish there were Stanford products <strong>Maya DiRado<\/strong> and <strong>Ella Eastin<\/strong>. But I don\u2019t think either one is going to swim the event.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s because the 200 fly semifinals will happen just minutes before the 200 IM final on day four, with only the men\u2019s 200 breast semis in between. If you read my <strong>bold<\/strong> predictions for day four, you might recall that I <a href=\"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/3-bold-predictions-for-u-s-olympic-trials-day-four\/\">picked<\/a> both DiRado and Eastin to do rather well in the 200 IM.<\/p>\n<p>Any swimmer would agree that racing a 200 fly with less than a half-hour to recover is less-than-ideal preparation for one of the biggest races of one\u2019s life. And since both women will have much better chances in the 200 IM, I expect that to be their focus. I have a feeling McLaughlin, <strong>Kelsi Worrell<\/strong>, <strong>Hali Flickinger<\/strong>, <strong>Christina Bechtel<\/strong> and others will not be complaining.<\/p>\n<p><strong>3. Two men will go under 48 in the 100 free, and it will take 48.6 or better to make the final.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>My picks to finish first and second in the 100 free at Olympic Trials will surprise very few. One is the defending Olympic gold medalist who already holds the fifth-best time in the world this year at 48.00. The other swam the fastest times in history in both the 50 and 100-yard freestyle at the NCAA Championships in March after winning both the 50 and 100-meter free at Summer Nationals last year. His rapid improvement over the past two years has indicated that he has some serious potential for a 47 at Trials.<\/p>\n<p>If you don\u2019t know who I\u2019m referring to, just see the race picks below.<\/p>\n<p>But of just as much interest will be places three through six as the Americans try to get back on top of the podium in the 400 free relay. Perhaps a dozen men have a chance at getting on this relay. The battle for spots in the top-eight should be fierce\u2014but I predict that the times will be slower in the final when eight men are fighting for six spots.<\/p>\n<p>The inevitably-choppy water will contribute to the sluggish times, but there\u2019s nothing that says someone has to swim their best in the final to claim an Olympic relay spot. Nope. Just make sure you beat two people, and you\u2019re going to Rio.<\/p>\n<h3>Race Picks:<\/h3>\n<p><strong>Men\u2019s 200 Breast<\/strong><br \/>\n1. Kevin Cordes<br \/>\n2. Will Licon<\/p>\n<p><strong>Women\u2019s 200 Fly<\/strong><br \/>\n1. Cammile Adams<br \/>\n2. Hali Flickinger<\/p>\n<p><strong>Men\u2019s 100 Free<\/strong><br \/>\n1. Nathan Adrian<br \/>\n2. Caeleb Dressel<br \/>\n3. Jimmy Feigen<br \/>\n4. Jack Conger<br \/>\n5. Matt Grevers<br \/>\n6. Michael Chadwick<\/p>\n<p><em>Check out our 3 Bold Predictions for each day of U.S. Olympic Trials:<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/3-bold-predictions-for-u-s-olympic-trials-day-one\/\">Day One<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/3-bold-predictions-for-u-s-olympic-trials-day-two\/\">Day Two<\/a><\/em><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/3-bold-predictions-for-u-s-olympic-trials-day-three\/\"><em>Day Three<\/em><\/a><br \/>\n<em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/3-bold-predictions-for-u-s-olympic-trials-day-four\/\">Day Four<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By David Rieder The United States has not had the greatest success with the men\u2019s 400 free relay as of late. Since Jason Lezak\u2019s heroic anchor leg at the 2008<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":43061,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"dois","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[3,17,7],"tags":[56855,29648,26126,25272,34417,27596,801,25833,26463,25903,25176,12011,26096,6302,25038,33982,19138,34232],"class_list":["post-208214","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured","category-commentary","category-usa","tag-2016-us-olympic-swimming-trials","tag-christina-bechtel","tag-cody-miller","tag-david-rieder","tag-ella-eastin","tag-jack-conger","tag-jason-lezak","tag-josh-prenot","tag-katie-mclaughlin","tag-kelsi-worrell","tag-kevin-cordes","tag-matt-grevers","tag-michael-chadwick","tag-michael-phelps","tag-nathan-adrian","tag-nic-fink","tag-ryan-lochte","tag-will-licon"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- 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