{"id":207987,"date":"2016-06-17T09:00:44","date_gmt":"2016-06-17T16:00:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/?p=207987"},"modified":"2016-06-17T09:52:40","modified_gmt":"2016-06-17T16:52:40","slug":"3-bold-predictions-for-u-s-olympic-trials-day-three","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/3-bold-predictions-for-u-s-olympic-trials-day-three\/","title":{"rendered":"3 Bold Predictions for U.S. Olympic Trials: Day Three"},"content":{"rendered":"

By David Rieder<\/em><\/p>\n

Day three of the Olympic Trials will be the first with four finals on the docket, and they should be four pretty good finals. There\u2019s the 200 free, where the top six will qualify for the 800 free relay; the 100 backstrokes, where the Americans typically excel; and also the women\u2019s 100 breast, which has over the past several months become one of the most anticipated of the Trials.<\/p>\n

This will be the fourth straight Olympics with the same event schedule\u2014the Trials schedule matches that of the Games\u2014and in that span, the U.S. has won seven of a possible 12 gold medals and 14 medals total on day three. And expect the Americans to once again be sending eight individual medal contenders to Rio.<\/p>\n

But before you read my event-by-event picks, how about checking out today\u2019s bold<\/strong> predictions?<\/p>\n

1. Maxime Rooney<\/a> becomes the youngest U.S. male Olympian in 16 years.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Eight teenagers competed for the American men in Sydney in 2000: Erik Vendt<\/strong>, Anthony Ervin<\/strong>, Kyle Salyards<\/strong>, Klete Keller<\/strong>, Pat Calhoun<\/strong>, Ian Crocker<\/strong>, Aaron Peirsol<\/strong> and Michael Phelps<\/strong>. Members of that group formed the foundation for the future of a dominant squad as five of the eight competed in both Athens and Beijing, and Ervin returned to join Phelps in London.<\/p>\n

But teenagers have not exactly populated the men\u2019s Olympic swimming roster in years since. In 2004, Phelps was still only 19 as he won his first six Olympic gold medals, and he was joined by fellow 19-year-old Larsen Jensen<\/strong>. Four years later, 19-year-old Nathan Adrian<\/strong> was all by himself in Beijing, and there were a grand total of zero teens on the men\u2019s roster\u00a0in London.<\/p>\n

But this year\u2019s team could have some youthful presence on it. Caeleb Dressel<\/strong> and Townley Haas<\/strong> both opened eyes with wins and American records at NCAAs, but one guy even younger could book himself a spot in Rio with a big effort on day three\u2014and I predict that he will.<\/p>\n

Rooney won last year\u2019s National title in the 200 free with a 1:47.10, and his 1:48.55 at the Arena Pro Swim Series meet in Santa Clara was an in-season personal best. He should not have to drop much time from last season to become the first man as young as 18 to make an Olympic Team since 2000.<\/p>\n

2. The two qualifiers in the women\u2019s 100 breast will both swim faster than the winning time at last summer\u2019s World Championships.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Hear me out for a minute, but I promise that this prediction is not quite as unrealistic as it may sound. First and foremost, Yuliya Efimova\u2019s<\/strong> top time from that final in Kazan last year was a relatively-slow 1:05.66\u2014slower than both Efimova and Ruta Meilutyte<\/strong> had gone in the semifinals and nowhere close to Meilutyte\u2019s 2013 world record of 1:04.35.<\/p>\n

And then there\u2019s the fact that, all the sudden, the Americans have made major strides in the event. The top finisher at Worlds last year was Jessica Hardy<\/strong>, who finished 10th in 1:07.22. Hardy could have redeemed herself with a big split on the 400 medley relay, but her 1:06.35 was not nearly good enough as the Americans ended up fourth.<\/p>\n

But in the past year, four Americans, none with experience on the senior National team, have swum times below 1:06.5. Pan American champion Katie Meili<\/strong> and NCAA champion Lilly King<\/strong> look like the favorites on-paper as they are the only two entered under 1:06, and right behind them are Molly Hannis<\/strong> and Sarah Haase<\/strong>. And you can never count out someone with the experience of former world record-holder Hardy or 2012 Olympic finalist Breeja Larson<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Meili recently told Swimming World<\/em><\/a>\u00a0that to make the team in Omaha it will take a 1:04\u2014no American has been that fast since 2009. While we\u2019re not ready to go that far, it does seem likely that whoever makes it will have to swim 1:05.5 or better.<\/p>\n

3. Aaron Peirsol\u2019s 100 back world record is going down.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Don\u2019t get me wrong\u2014it will take an incredible effort to take down the 51.94 that Peirsol clocked at the World Championship Trial in Indianapolis seven years ago. At the height of the supersuit era and just a week after losing his mark to Spain\u2019s Aschwin Wildeboer<\/strong>, the man widely-regarded as the greatest backstroker in history uncorked what may have been the one signature swim of his career.<\/p>\n

Australian World Champion Mitch Larkin<\/strong> has been hot on the tails of that record, clocking a 52.11 last November, but it would stay in American hands if it goes down at U.S. Trials. Since David Berkoff<\/strong> became the first man under 55 in 1988, the record has belonged to a U.S. swimmer for 28 years except for that one week in 2009. Berkoff broke it three times, Jeff Rouse<\/strong> twice, Lenny Krayzelburg<\/strong> once and Peirsol six times.<\/p>\n

Three men look like they have real shots at reaching that barrier in Omaha, beginning with defending Olympic champion Matt Grevers<\/strong>, who has the second-fastest time ever at 52.08 from the Trials four years ago. Then there\u2019s Ryan Murphy<\/strong> and David Plumme<\/strong>r, who rank 5th and 11th, respectively, on the all-time list in the event. Both have swum fast this year already\u2014Plummer at 52.40 and Murphy at 52.57.<\/p>\n

But there are three contenders and only two spots\u2014just as was the case four years ago, when Plummer came in third at 52.98. His time from Trials would have placed fourth in London. The American men, of course, finished first and second in that race with Grevers and Nick Thoman<\/strong>, just as Peirsol and Grevers finished one-two four years before that. This race should be a scorcher, a nail-biter and, yes, a heartbreaker.<\/p>\n

Race Picks:<\/h3>\n

Men\u2019s 200 Free<\/strong>
\n1. Conor Dwyer
\n2. Ryan Lochte
\n3. Michael Phelps
\n4. Maxime Rooney
\n5. Townley Haas
\n6. Jack Conger<\/p>\n

Women\u2019s 100 Back<\/strong>
\n1. Missy Franklin
\n2. Natalie Coughlin<\/p>\n

Men\u2019s 100 Back<\/strong>
\n1. Ryan Murphy
\n2. Matt Grevers<\/p>\n

Women\u2019s 100 Breast<\/strong>
\n1. Lilly King
\n2. Katie Meili<\/p>\n

By David Rieder Day three of the Olympic Trials will be the first with four finals on the docket, and they should be four pretty good finals. There\u2019s the 200<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":206317,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"dois","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[3,17,7],"tags":[56855,3622,5223,24850,20290,13727,25272,1847,4599,89,25034,25396,3818,5643,358,12011,6302,25136,26908,25038,25398,5251,19138,25269,27652,25311],"class_list":["post-207987","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured","category-commentary","category-usa","tag-2016-us-olympic-swimming-trials","tag-aaron-peirsol","tag-anthony-ervin","tag-conor-dwyer","tag-david-berkoff","tag-david-plummer","tag-david-rieder","tag-erik-vendt","tag-ian-crocker","tag-jeff-rouse","tag-jessica-hardy","tag-katie-meili","tag-klete-keller","tag-kyle-salyards","tag-lenny-krayzelburg","tag-matt-grevers","tag-michael-phelps","tag-missy-franklin","tag-molly-hannis","tag-nathan-adrian","tag-nick-thoman","tag-pat-calhoun","tag-ryan-lochte","tag-ryan-murphy","tag-sarah-haase","tag-yuliya-efimova"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"yoast_head":"\r\n3 Bold Predictions for U.S. Olympic Trials: Day Three<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Expect eight medal contenders to be selected for the U.S. Olympic team on day three of Olympic Trials.\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/3-bold-predictions-for-u-s-olympic-trials-day-three\/\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"3 Bold Predictions for U.S. Olympic Trials: Day Three\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Expect eight medal contenders to be selected for the U.S. Olympic team on day three of Olympic Trials.\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/3-bold-predictions-for-u-s-olympic-trials-day-three\/\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Swimming World\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/SwimmingWorld\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2016-06-17T16:00:44+00:00\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2016-06-17T16:52:40+00:00\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/vmrw8k5h.tinifycdn.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/06\/lilly-king-2016-arena-indy-2428-e1487624182992.jpg\" \/>\r\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\r\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"800\" \/>\r\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"David Rieder - 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Check out our 3 Bold Predictions for each day of U.S. Olympic Trials:
\nDay One<\/a>
\nDay Two<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"