{"id":207606,"date":"2016-06-14T09:03:51","date_gmt":"2016-06-14T16:03:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/?p=207606"},"modified":"2016-06-14T09:18:56","modified_gmt":"2016-06-14T16:18:56","slug":"3-bold-predictions-for-u-s-olympic-trials-day-one","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/3-bold-predictions-for-u-s-olympic-trials-day-one\/","title":{"rendered":"3 Bold Predictions for U.S. Olympic Trials: Day One"},"content":{"rendered":"

By David Rieder<\/em><\/p>\n

Admit it, you\u2019ve felt the Olympic buzz. Maybe you\u2019ve seen the Olympic rings and the countdown to the Games on your local NBC station. Maybe you\u2019ve seen an article in your local newspaper about some teenage superstar making their first Olympic Trials cut. Or perhaps it\u2019s been noticing names like Phelps<\/strong>, Lochte<\/strong>, Franklin<\/strong> and Ledecky<\/strong> a little more often on your favorite sports website.<\/p>\n

The Olympics are closer, and that means the biggest swim meet on U.S. soil is even closer\u201412 days away, as a matter of fact. For most of the 1800-plus competitors, the meet is about the experience. Getting their cuts was the big victory, and now, while a best time would be nice, they have no legitimate hopes of making the team.<\/p>\n

For the rest, the ones whose every race we here at Swimming World<\/em> follow, this meet is all that matters. Those excellent times\u2014or lousy times\u2014from that random meet last month? Forget it. Their World Championship medals? Meaningless. Just get top two\u2014top six in the 100 or 200 free.<\/p>\n

Personally, I\u2019ve been looking forward to these Olympic Trials since I left Omaha four years ago. That was just a four year cameo where I sat in the stands and wrote a few blogs. But this time, I\u2019ll be all over the action.<\/p>\n

But before we get to Omaha, I\u2019ll provide this series of reads over the next 11 days spelling out in detail what I think will happen. For any of you reading who I predict to not make the team, it\u2019s nothing personal. You guys are still awesome. Better than me, anyway\u2014my best time in my best event is six seconds off Trials!<\/p>\n

Good luck to all, and right now, let\u2019s get to my bold<\/strong> predictions for day one.<\/p>\n

1. An American will post the world\u2019s fastest time at Olympic Trials in the men\u2019s 400 IM.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The U.S. has a rather solid history of doing well in this event. Don\u2019t believe me? Let\u2019s look back at the past few Olympic Trials in the 400 IM. In 2012, Ryan Lochte<\/strong> swam a 4:07.06 to win the 400 IM at Trials, which was\u2014you guessed it, the world\u2019s fastest time.<\/p>\n

In 2008, Michael<\/strong> Phelps<\/strong> won the event at Trials in 4:05.25, and Lochte was second in 4:06.08. Not only did the duo record the two fastest times in the world at the time, but they also both went under Phelps\u2019 previous world record of 4:06.22.<\/p>\n

In 2004, Phelps posted a 4:08.41 at Trials\u2014also a world record. Before that, Tom<\/strong> Dolan<\/strong> won gold in the 400 IM in both 1996 and 2000. Over the past five Olympics, the American men have won nine medals in the 400 IM: five gold, three silver and one bronze\u2014and one fourth-place finish.<\/p>\n

They\u2019ve got some work to do this time.<\/p>\n

Japan\u2019s Kosuke Hagino<\/strong> has the top time in the world this year at 4:08.85, and his countryman Daiya Seto<\/strong> won last year\u2019s World title in 4:08.50. Chase Kalisz<\/strong>, perhaps the most promising American IMer over the last four years, won bronze at the World Championships last year in 4:10.05, and his best time is a 4:09.22. For my first bold prediction of the week, I\u2019ll say Kalisz gets into the 4:08-low range to set himself up for a run at a medal in Rio.<\/p>\n

2. It\u2019s good to be named \u201cCon(n)or\u201d in the 400 free.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The men\u2019s 400 free always turns out to be really tight at Trials. In 2008, the top three finishers were separated by just 0.39, when after eight laps of the pool, a chopped finish cost Erik<\/strong> Vendt<\/strong> a spot on the Olympic Team. Four years later, a mere 0.65 split the top four.<\/p>\n

This one could be just as tight and just as tough to crack the top two. Connor Jaeger<\/strong> has been the best American in the event each of the past three years, winning bronze at the 2013 World Championships and placing fourth at Worlds last year. Michael<\/strong> McBroom<\/strong> made the final at Worlds, Zane Grothe<\/strong> won the event at Nationals and Clark<\/strong> Smith<\/strong> and Townley<\/strong> Haas<\/strong> have won the past two NCAA titles in the 500.<\/p>\n

Conor<\/strong> Dwyer<\/strong>? He\u2019s more typically thought of as a 200 free guy. That is, after all, the event in which he won silver at the 2013 Worlds, and Dwyer has been a staple on the American 800 free relay the past four years. But the 400 was the event in which Dwyer first made the Olympic team in 2012, and he finished sixth in the final in London.<\/p>\n

Dwyer has re-emerged as a serious contender to make the team in the 400 over the past several months. His 3:46.09 at the recent Arena Pro Swim Series meet in Santa Clara was a lifetime best\u2014improving on the 3:46.24 he swam in 2012 to qualify for the Olympic final. And a big swim in Omaha would go a long way to ensure that the two American Olympians in the 400 free have almost the same first name.<\/p>\n

3. Elizabeth Beisel breaks the American record in the 400 IM.<\/strong><\/p>\n

During the first night of the 2008 Trials, Katie Hoff<\/strong> broke the world record in the 400 IM, clocking 4:31.12 to steal back the record from Australia\u2019s Stephanie Rice<\/strong>. Second that evening was 15-year-old Elizabeth Beisel<\/strong>, who touched in 4:32.87\u2014under Hoff\u2019s previous American record\u2014 to make her first Olympic team.<\/p>\n

Since then, Beisel has had a reasonably successful run in the 400 IM. She won the World title in the event in 2011 and an Olympic silver medal in 2012. She was the top American performer in the event every year from 2009 to 2014, swimming in the 4:31-range the last four of those seasons. Her best time of 4:31.27 ranks her ninth all-time in the event.<\/p>\n

Yep, that means Beisel has been within 0.15 of Hoff\u2019s still-standing American record, but no closer. Could this be the meet she gets under it? Beisel has been swimming lights-out so far this season\u2014her 4:33.55 from last month ranks fourth in the world and is just three one-hundredths off her career-best in-season mark. World Champs silver medalist Maya DiRado<\/strong> will surely be up there as well, but it would be most fitting for Beisel to be the one to bring down Hoff\u2019s eight-year-old mark.<\/p>\n

Race Picks:<\/h3>\n

Men\u2019s 400 IM<\/strong>
\n1. Chase Kalisz
\n2. Ryan Lochte<\/p>\n

Men\u2019s 400 Free<\/strong>
\n1. Connor Jaeger
\n2. Conor Dwyer<\/p>\n

Women\u2019s 400 IM<\/strong>
\n1. Elizabeth Beisel
\n2. Maya DiRado<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By David Rieder Admit it, you\u2019ve felt the Olympic buzz. Maybe you\u2019ve seen the Olympic rings and the countdown to the Games on your local NBC station. Maybe you\u2019ve seen<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":195841,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"dois","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[3,17,7],"tags":[56855,25490,27592,25629,24850,26168,1847,26341,26699,25131,19138,27781],"class_list":["post-207606","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured","category-commentary","category-usa","tag-2016-us-olympic-swimming-trials","tag-chase-kalisz","tag-clark-smith","tag-connor-jaeger","tag-conor-dwyer","tag-elizabeth-beisel","tag-erik-vendt","tag-katie-hoff","tag-maya-dirado","tag-michael-mcbroom","tag-ryan-lochte","tag-zane-grothe"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"yoast_head":"\r\n3 Bold Predictions for U.S. Olympic Trials: Day One<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out the first of our predictions for Olympic Trials.\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/3-bold-predictions-for-u-s-olympic-trials-day-one\/\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"3 Bold Predictions for U.S. Olympic Trials: Day One\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Check out the first of our predictions for Olympic Trials.\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/3-bold-predictions-for-u-s-olympic-trials-day-one\/\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Swimming World\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/SwimmingWorld\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2016-06-14T16:03:51+00:00\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2016-06-14T16:18:56+00:00\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/vmrw8k5h.tinifycdn.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/chase-kalisz-2016-mesa-2168.jpg\" \/>\r\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2400\" \/>\r\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1600\" \/>\r\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"David Rieder - 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