{"id":160123,"date":"2015-11-06T17:00:37","date_gmt":"2015-11-07T00:00:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/?p=160123"},"modified":"2015-11-06T17:00:37","modified_gmt":"2015-11-07T00:00:37","slug":"can-team-usa-make-it-seven-in-a-row-at-duel-in-the-pool","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/can-team-usa-make-it-seven-in-a-row-at-duel-in-the-pool\/","title":{"rendered":"Can Team USA Make It Seven In A Row At Duel In the Pool?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Commentary by Jeff Commings<\/i><\/p>\n

This year\u2019s Duel in the Pool, set for December 11-12 in Indianapolis, is likely to further show us what we already knew after this summer\u2019s world championships: the world is catching up to the United States in the pool. <\/p>\n

Team USA experienced its lowest gold medal count at a world championships in a long time, winning only five individual events. Europeans won 15 individual gold medals, and while the Americans will suffer greatly at the Duel in the Pool with the absence of Katie Ledecky<\/strong>, they should be very grateful that only five of this year\u2019s 11 world champions from Europe agreed to participate.<\/p>\n

Based on the rosters for Team USA<\/a> and the European-All Stars<\/a>, Europe is likely to win this year\u2019s Duel In the Pool. That would put an end to the unbeaten streak the Americans have enjoyed in the meet dating back to the competitions against Australia. In 2013, the Europeans lost by one point, and it\u2019s clear there\u2019s no intent of letting that happen again.<\/p>\n

The wild card is the level of preparation each athlete will make for the meet. The Europeans tend to rest heavily for any major meet, and I believe the Americans will, too. The enticement of cash prizes will likely have Team USA put aside the typical belief that no meet outside of the Olympics, world championships, NCAAs or nationals deserves a taper.<\/p>\n

Below is a breakdown of the possible matchups set for December\u2019s meet, and who will come out on top.<\/p>\n

Duel In the Pool Women\u2019s Events<\/h2>\n

Sprint freestyle<\/strong>
\nThe Americans have the depth in the 50 and 100 freestyles to match what Europe has to offer. It\u2019s only a matter of how the placings work out, and the races could be close. Simone Manuel, Natalie Coughlin<\/strong> and Jessica Hardy<\/strong> could put up some big points in the 50 free, with Missy Franklin<\/strong> likely joining them in the 100 free. Ranomi Kromowidjojo<\/strong> is the reigning Olympic champion in both sprint freestyles, but didn\u2019t have a great meet at long course worlds. If she\u2019s back on track, she could sweep the sprints, accompanied by Jeanette Ottesen<\/strong> and former 100 free world champ Aliaksandra Herasimenia<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

200 freestyle<\/strong>
\nThis will be a rematch between Katinka Hosszu<\/strong> and Missy Franklin<\/strong>, where Hosszu will be looking to get the victory after missing out on the medal stand at worlds while Franklin collected the bronze medal. Manuel would be a good choice for Team USA, as will Leah Smith<\/strong> to counter Hosszu and Siobhan-Marie O\u2019Connor<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Distance freestyle<\/strong>
\nWithout Ledecky, Europe will run wild over the distance freestyles. Jazz Carlin, Lotte Friis<\/strong> and Boglarka Kapas<\/strong> will dominate over the likes of Smith and Becca Mann<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Butterfly<\/strong>
\nOn paper, Ottesen is unstoppable in the 100 fly, coming in as the silver medalist from worlds. Kelsi Worrell<\/strong> has been having an incredible year, and could give Ottesen a strong challenge. The 200 fly will be a great race, as Hosszu, Fransziska Hentke<\/strong> and Zsuszanna Jakabos<\/strong> will do battle against Worrell and Cammile Adams<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Backstroke<\/strong>
\nThe Americans have plenty of depth in the backstroke, but will be hard-pressed to the get first-place points. Mie Nielsen<\/strong> could be the spoiler in the 100 back, though Coughlin and Franklin are also strong in the event. Indiana native Claire Adams<\/strong> could provide some assistance, with a big boost from the home crowd. Hosszu\u2019s underwater kicks could help her win the 200 back over Franklin in the short course meters pool, though Franklin is very good at outswimming just about any of her rivals.<\/p>\n

Breaststroke<\/strong>
\nYuliya Efimova<\/strong> could sweep the breaststroke events for Europe, but it won\u2019t be easy. Katie Meili<\/strong> could continue a breakthrough year by upsetting Efimova (the world champion in the 100 breast), while Micah Lawrence<\/strong> could outlast Efimova in the 200. Caitlin Leverenz<\/strong> and Laura Sogar<\/strong> have better chances of scoring big in the 200 breast, which means Fanny Lecluyse<\/strong> and Hilda Luthersdottir<\/strong> could take advantage of the Americans\u2019 weakness in the 100 breast.<\/p>\n

Individual medley<\/strong>
\nAs the reigning short course and long course world champion in the 200 and 400 IMs, Hosszu is unbeatable. If Maya DiRado<\/strong> had been a part of the squad, the Americans would have been almost assured of second place in both events. But look for O\u2019Connor to finish second in the 200 IM, while Jakabos should do well in the 400 IM. Leverenz and Melanie Margalis<\/strong> will do what they can to keep Europe at bay in the 200 IM, while Leverenz and Sarah Henry<\/strong> would be the best chances for big points for the Americans. Cammile Adams could step into the 400 IM as well.<\/p>\n

Relays<\/strong>
\nThe 400 free relay will be close. On paper, the Americans have the edge with Franklin, Hardy, Geer and Manuel as the top four. Coughlin and Lia Neal<\/strong> might step into the A relay, and with only one foursome per team scoring, it\u2019s important to find the best relay. Europe counters well with the strength of Kromowidjojo, Herasimenia and Ottesen. O\u2019Connor is also strong in the 100 free. The medley relay also presents a close matchup, with both teams almost equal with their top swimmers in each stroke. I give Europe the advantage now with stronger butterfly and freestyle swimmers.<\/p>\n

Prediction:<\/strong> The Europeans will win more women\u2019s events, and one of the two relays. That will help them win the women\u2019s side of the meet.<\/p>\n

\"Ranomi<\/a>

Photo Courtesy: Gian Mattia Dalberto\/Lapresse<\/p><\/div>\n

Duel In the Pool Men\u2019s Events<\/h2>\n

Sprint freestyle<\/strong>
\nThis is a fairly even matchup. The United States has Nathan Adrian<\/strong> and Josh Schneider<\/strong> up against Vladimir Morozov<\/strong> and Marco Orsi<\/strong> in the 50 free. They will take the top four spots, but it\u2019s anyone\u2019s guess who can get the crucial win. In the 100 free, Adrian and Morozov are also evenly matched there, with Andrii Govorov<\/strong> likely to perform better than Orsi. The Americans have a strong trip behind Adrian in the 100 free, as Conor Dwyer, Ryan Lochte<\/strong> and Michael Chadwick<\/strong> could give the United States some depth.<\/p>\n

200 freestyle<\/strong>
\nLochte will be looking for revenge against James Guy<\/strong> in the 200 free. Guy was one of three people to pass Lochte in the final 25 meters of the 200 free at the world championships, and Lochte could get his comeuppance thanks to his superior turns. Look for Lochte to put his new underwater kicking style on display in this event and rattle Guy a little bit. Dwyer could help greatly for Team USA, as will Connor Jaeger<\/strong> and Zane Grothe<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

Distance freestyle<\/strong>
\nLook for Guy to win the 400 freestyle ahead of Connor Jaeger<\/strong>, with a great battle for third in the making. Dan Wallace<\/strong> is very capable in the 400 free, as are Jan Switkowski<\/strong> and Gregorio Paltrinieri<\/strong>. For the United States, I\u2019m sure Dwyer will step into the event with Michael McBroom<\/strong> and Grothe. It should be a great fight to the finish. In the 1500 free, I\u2019m anxious to see how Paltrinieri and Jaeger match up in the short course pool. This might be the only major weakness for the European men, as no one can match the strength of McBroom and Grothe in the mile.<\/p>\n

Butterfly<\/strong>
\nSince this is a short course meters meet, I expect Tom Shields<\/strong> to win both butterfly events. Shields is one of the best underwater kickers in the world, and that should help him get to the wall ahead of Laszlo Cseh<\/strong>. Don\u2019t count out Cseh, though, as he won the 200 fly world title and picked up silver in the 100 fly last summer. Viktor Bromer<\/strong> will provide strong backup for Cseh in the 200 fly. Beyond Cseh and Shields, neither team has an established 100 butterflyer on the squad. We might see Lochte in this event, and couple with Shields, the two could pull off a 1-2 finish in the 100 fly.<\/p>\n

Backstroke<\/strong>
\nMatt Grevers<\/strong> and Nick Thoman<\/strong> have the capability of going 1-2 in the 100 back, and it would be great to see these two in the 200 back as well. That\u2019s where the Americans could suffer, with short course world champion Radoslaw Kawecki<\/strong> in the race. Look for Tyler Clary<\/strong> to shine here, and this could be another event to feature Lochte. Kawecki could have strong support from Peter Bernek<\/strong> and Pavel Sankovich<\/strong>. Luca Mencarini<\/strong> could make it an even stronger event for Europe.<\/p>\n

Breaststroke<\/strong>
\nThe Americans have the 100 breast locked up, with Kevin Cordes, Cody Miller<\/strong> and Andrew Wilson<\/strong> poised for a 1-2-3 finish that would really help Team USA on the second day of the meet. As far as the 200 breast, Daniel Gyurta<\/strong> will be in a dogfight with Cordes for the win. Andrew Willis<\/strong> could also be in the mix, but his performances earlier in 2015 don\u2019t suggest that he can stay with the leaders through the entire race.<\/p>\n

Individual medley<\/strong>
\nCseh skipped out on the 200 IM at the world championships, but I think the European All-Stars would be smart to put him in the event at the Duel In the Pool. Cseh is Europe\u2019s best answer to Lochte in the event, and if Cseh doesn\u2019t swim in the event, that leaves the United States open to a 1-2 finish. I expect Dwyer to swim here to help the Americans, and the field could be rounded out with Josh Prenot<\/strong> and Clary. On paper, the 400 IM belongs to David Verraszto<\/strong>, the bronze medalist in the event at world championships. Clary will be very tough, though, and will be looking to get the men\u2019s team off to a winning start in the first individual event for the men. Prenot is making big strides in the 400 IM, and could be a very strong competitor here. Dan Wallace<\/strong> shouldn\u2019t be counted out, either, after making the world championship final last summer.<\/p>\n

Relays<\/strong>
\nThough many would think the Americans don\u2019t have a chance against the Europeans in the 400 free relay, based on Team USA\u2019s failure to make the finals at worlds, the Americans will be tough to beat in Indianapolis. Adrian, Lochte, Dwyer and Grevers are the likely swimmers for the United States, and that is an impressive lineup. Europe will likely use Morozov, Orsi, Govorov and Guy for their relay, and the difference might come from the support the crowd will give the Americans. This will be the final event of the meet, and as it did in 2013, the overall team race might be decided on this race.<\/p>\n

The medley relay is firmly in the United States\u2019 hands, and Europe will not be able to get past the lead Grevers would put up in the backstroke leg.<\/p>\n

Prediction:<\/strong> The American men will win the meet, but not by much. The team that wins on the men\u2019s side will be the one that can put up more 1-2 finishes. At first glance, Team USA has the best chance of doing that.<\/p>\n

Overall meet prediction:<\/strong> The European women will have such a wide gap over the Americans that won\u2019t be overcome by the American men. Expect the European All-Stars to win, but by fewer than 10 points.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Commentary by Jeff Commings This year\u2019s Duel in the Pool, set for December 11-12 in Indianapolis, is likely to further show us what we already knew after this summer\u2019s world<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":134073,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"dois","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[3,17,7,10],"tags":[55097,35058,25466,47010,28759,25037,28932,26126,25629,24850,25623,25139,28624,49645,36281,32022,26185,294,32014,25528,31138,25034,25833,36011,25031,25396,25903,25176,26831,25401,25513,26700,25029,34413,32159,12011,26699,25178,25412,26096,25131,27032,25136,1776,25038,25398,25648,19138,26016,25400,142,25424,25035,34303,26559,25311,27781],"class_list":["post-160123","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured","category-commentary","category-usa","category-world","tag-2015-duel-in-the-pool","tag-andrew-willis","tag-andrew-wilson","tag-andrii-govorov","tag-becca-mann","tag-caitlin-leverenz","tag-claire-adams","tag-cody-miller","tag-connor-jaeger","tag-conor-dwyer","tag-dan-wallace","tag-daniel-gyurta","tag-david-verraszto","tag-duel-in-the-pool","tag-fanny-lecluyse","tag-gregorio-paltrinieri","tag-hilda-luthersdottir","tag-indianapolis","tag-james-guy","tag-jan-switkowski","tag-jeanette-ottesen","tag-jessica-hardy","tag-josh-prenot","tag-josh-schneider","tag-katie-ledecky","tag-katie-meili","tag-kelsi-worrell","tag-kevin-cordes","tag-laszlo-cseh","tag-laura-sogar","tag-leah-smith","tag-lia-neal","tag-lotte-friis","tag-luca-mencarini","tag-marco-orsi","tag-matt-grevers","tag-maya-dirado","tag-melanie-margalis","tag-micah-lawrence","tag-michael-chadwick","tag-michael-mcbroom","tag-mie-nielsen","tag-missy-franklin","tag-natalie-coughlin","tag-nathan-adrian","tag-nick-thoman","tag-pavel-sankovich","tag-ryan-lochte","tag-sarah-henry","tag-simone-manuel","tag-swimming","tag-tom-shields","tag-tyler-clary","tag-viktor-bromer","tag-vladimir-morozov","tag-yuliya-efimova","tag-zane-grothe"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"yoast_head":"\r\nCan 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