{"id":141166,"date":"2015-07-03T14:15:36","date_gmt":"2015-07-03T21:15:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/?p=141166"},"modified":"2015-07-28T18:06:00","modified_gmt":"2015-07-29T01:06:00","slug":"world-championships-medal-predictions-team-usa-should-sweep-medley-relays","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/world-championships-medal-predictions-team-usa-should-sweep-medley-relays\/","title":{"rendered":"World Championships Medal Predictions: Team USA Should Sweep Medley Relays"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pre-coverage of the World Championships is sponsored by Wylas Timing<\/a>. Each week leading up to the start of the swimming competition at the FINA world championships, Swimming World will offer medal predictions for the 42 events set to be contested in Kazan, Russia. <\/i><\/p>\n

Commentary by Jeff Commings<\/i><\/p>\n

The men\u2019s 400 medley relay didn\u2019t turn out the way the Americans planned at the 2013 world championships. The early takeoff by Kevin Cordes<\/strong> on the breaststroke leg nullified the dominating performance by Team USA in the final men\u2019s event, giving them a major blow to what had been an otherwise so-so meet. <\/p>\n

That won\u2019t happen in Kazan next month, and not only because Cordes will likely not swim the breaststroke leg. Safe starts are likely already in the minds of those with a chance of swimming the medley relay, since the United States is pretty much assured of winning it by more than a body length.<\/p>\n

The American women might have a shot at the world record of 3:52.09 swum by the U.S. in the 2012 Olympics, and it could be a possible sixth gold medal for Missy Franklin at these world championships to give her 14 in her career.<\/p>\n

\"Wylas<\/a>

Photo Courtesy: Wylas Timing<\/p><\/div>\n

Women\u2019s 400 medley relay<\/h2>\n

The Americans have strong swimmers in each of the four strokes, and the sting of losing to the Australians at the 2014 Pan Pacific championships will still be felt when they walk onto the deck for the 400 medley relay final. Though Australia has four solid legs, they were able to win the relay at Pan Pacs because Missy Franklin\u2019s<\/strong> back injury put the Americans behind the Australians in a crucial leg. With Franklin swimming at 100 percent this year, the backstroke leg is not the worrisome part for the Americans.<\/p>\n

By the time the freestyle rolls around, we could see a battle for the ages. If the United States is more than a half second ahead of the Aussies, the Americans win because Cate Campbell<\/strong> will not be able to catch Simone Manuel<\/strong>, the likely freestyler for Team USA. The United States has the advantage in backstroke, breaststroke and butterfly, giving them enough of a cushion to overcome Campbell\u2019s power. And Manuel has gotten faster in the past year and will not let Campbell outsplit her.<\/p>\n

Russia won bronze at the 2013 worlds in the medley relay, and will be tough to beat for bronze again with the home crowd pulling them along. With Daria Ustinova<\/strong> (backstroke), Yuliya Efimova<\/strong> (breaststroke) and Natalia Lovtsova<\/strong> (butterfly), the Russians could keep up with the Americans and Australians through 300 meters. Since Lovtsova is also the country\u2019s fastest freestyler, the coaches will need to dig into their reserves and find someone who can at least keep the team in a strong third place. Svetlana Chimrova<\/strong> or Veronika Popova<\/strong> are likely choices for the freestyle leg.<\/p>\n

I see Denmark making a big push for a medal as well, but the major flaw is in the freestyle. If the Danes put Jeanette Ottesen<\/strong> on the butterfly leg (assuming that her injuries<\/a> do not prevent her from swimming fast), there is no great freestyler to back up the great strength of Mie Nielsen<\/strong> on backstroke, Rikke Moller Pedersen<\/strong> on breaststroke and Ottesen on butterfly. Pernille Blume<\/strong> is the likely candidate as Denmark\u2019s top freestyler, but can she swim as fast as Russia\u2019s freestyler? <\/p>\n

While Russia and Denmark keep an eye on each other through the race, Japan might sneak in to win bronze. The surprising retirement of Aya Terakawa<\/strong> in 2013<\/a> puts them at a disadvantage, as Terakawa could always be relied on to supply a great backstroke swim. Now, the Japanese fall behind early in the race and play catch up in the breaststroke and butterfly.<\/p>\n

Watch for a resurgent Canada to also fight for bronze. The Canadians beat Japan last year at the Pan Pacific championships, but will need to have stronger backstroke and breaststroke legs to stay competitive with much faster teams from Russia and Denmark.<\/p>\n

Women\u2019s 400 medley relay medal predictions<\/h3>\n

Gold:<\/strong> USA
\nSilver:<\/strong> Australia
\nBronze:<\/strong> Russia<\/p>\n

\"Yuliya<\/a>

Photo Courtesy: Joao Marc Bosch<\/p><\/div>\n

Men\u2019s 400 medley relay<\/h2>\n

Nathan Adrian<\/strong> is the only safe bet for inclusion on the United States\u2019 400 medley relay. The swimmers in the other three strokes \u2013 even reigning 100 back world champion Matt Grevers<\/strong> \u2013 will need to emerge from their respective events as the fastest of the two Americans in each race in order to assure a spot on the relay.<\/p>\n

Though the odds aren\u2019t strongly in his favor, David Plummer<\/strong> could outswim Grevers in the 100 back and get on his first major long course medley relay. And there\u2019s a chance that Ryan Murphy<\/strong>, who is only racing the 200 back in Russia, will swim a 100 back time trial to put his name in the hat. Either way, the United States is solid in backstroke, with Japan\u2019s Ryosuke Irie<\/strong> the only swimmer that can likely take down the Americans. (See backstroke medal predictions<\/a>.)<\/p>\n

Kevin Cordes<\/strong> could also participate in a time trial to give himself the opportunity to avenge his disqualification at the 2013 worlds. Cordes missed out on the chance to do the 100 at worlds, but depending on his performances in the 50 and 200, he could be considered by the men\u2019s coaches. Cody Miller<\/strong> has been improving all year, and he might take the mantel for the first time. With Australia still rebuilding on breaststroke this year, it keeps the Aussies at bay through the first 200 meters. Japan will still be in contention, with Yasuhiro Koseki<\/strong> able to match Miller stroke for stroke.<\/p>\n

We shouldn\u2019t forget about Great Britain. Chris Walker-Hebborn<\/strong> on backstroke and Adam Peaty<\/strong> on breaststroke make for a very, very strong opening half for the Brits. Don\u2019t be surprised if Great Britain is leading after breaststroke by almost a body length. But it\u2019s the final 200 meters where Team GB suffers when compared to the United States.<\/p>\n

Tom Shields<\/strong> and Tim Phillips<\/strong> are the American entrants in the 100 fly, and at this point, I\u2019m picking Shields for relay duty. Japan has historically done very well in the butterfly leg of the medley relay, staying within a half body length of the Americans. Takuro Fujii<\/strong> will only need to stay within contact of the American butterflyer to stay in a comfortable silver medal position. At this point, Great Britain will fall off the pace, giving countries such as Russia and France a bit of motivation as the teams head into freestyle.<\/p>\n

Adrian is only racing the clock at this point, though the world record of 3:27.28 is not in jeopardy. Japan got a big boost in freestyle with the talents of Katsumi Nakamura<\/strong>, who will be able to split in the low-48 second range and hold of Russia\u2019s Vladimir Morozov<\/strong> and France\u2019s Fabien Gilot<\/strong>. It will be exciting to see the race for the minor medals, as Russia and France will try to make up for their fairly decent breaststroke and butterfly legs with two of the fastest freestyle splits in the field.<\/p>\n

Men\u2019s 400 medley relay medal predictions<\/h3>\n

Gold:<\/strong> USA
\nSilver:<\/strong> Japan
\nBronze:<\/strong> Russia
\n

\"Takuro<\/a>

Photo Courtesy: Peter H. Bick<\/p><\/div><\/p>\n

Mixed 400 medley relay<\/h2>\n

For the first time at a long course world championships, we get to see a mixed medley relay. The strategy for this race is much more difficult than the mixed freestyle relay. Which strokes should the two men swim? Where do you put the two women? Most successful medley relays put the men in backstroke and breaststroke, as Tom Shields noted after Team USA beat the European All-Stars<\/a> in the 200 medley relay at the 2013 Duel in the Pool.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s difficult to pick the medalists in this event, because we won\u2019t know who swims what stroke for each country until a few hours before the final. But, given the various strengths of the top countries, we can make an educated guess.<\/p>\n

If the top teams use the men for the first 200 meters, the United States and Japan will have the early lead. It might be best for Russia to save Morozov for freestyle, as he can put up a monster split to overcome most deficits. But again, it depends on how the swimmers are placed. We could see the eventual gold medalists eight seconds behind after breaststroke, or have a big lead halfway through the race. Using the men first gives the two women on butterfly and freestyle less of a chance of swimming in the wake of the teams that are leading.<\/p>\n

Australia and France should also be in the hunt, but only if they strategize wisely. Whatever happens, it will be a fun bonus event. Let\u2019s hope all countries invest their top swimmers in this race, even if it\u2019s not an Olympic event and most will bristle at adding another 100 meters to a packed lineup.<\/p>\n

Mixed 400 medley relay medal predictions<\/h3>\n

Gold:<\/strong> USA
\nSilver:<\/strong> Australia
\nBronze:<\/strong> Japan<\/p>\n

Previous world championships medal predictions<\/strong>
\nIndividual medley<\/a>
\nDistance freestyle<\/a>
\nFreestyle relay<\/a>
\nBackstroke<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pre-coverage of the World Championships is sponsored by Wylas Timing. Each week leading up to the start of the swimming competition at the FINA world championships, Swimming World will offer<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":56181,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"dois","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[3,17,10],"tags":[51878,26806,14055,31273,26126,36809,13727,31138,27552,25176,12011,27032,25136,52388,25269,25400,34409,142,27693,25664,25424,36815,26559,27533],"class_list":["post-141166","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured","category-commentary","category-world","tag-2015-fina-world-championships","tag-adam-peaty","tag-aya-terakawa","tag-chris-walker-hebborn","tag-cody-miller","tag-daria-ustinova","tag-david-plummer","tag-jeanette-ottesen","tag-katsumi-nakamura","tag-kevin-cordes","tag-matt-grevers","tag-mie-nielsen","tag-missy-franklin","tag-natalia-lovtsova","tag-ryan-murphy","tag-simone-manuel","tag-svetlana-chimrova","tag-swimming","tag-takuro-fujii","tag-tim-phillips","tag-tom-shields","tag-veronika-popova","tag-vladimir-morozov","tag-yasuhiro-koseki"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"yoast_head":"\r\nTeam USA Should Sweep Medley Relays At World Championships<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The medley relays at the world swimming championships in 2015 belong to the United States, as they are primed to win the women's men's and mixed relays.\" \/>\r\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\r\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/world-championships-medal-predictions-team-usa-should-sweep-medley-relays\/\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"World Championships Medal Predictions: Team USA Should Sweep Medley Relays\" \/>\r\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The medley relays at the world swimming championships in 2015 belong to the United States, as they are primed to win the women's men's and mixed relays.\" \/>\r\n<meta 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