{"id":135191,"date":"2015-06-03T14:00:31","date_gmt":"2015-06-03T21:00:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/?p=135191"},"modified":"2015-08-24T21:47:10","modified_gmt":"2015-08-25T04:47:10","slug":"is-the-future-of-usa-swimming-in-trouble","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/is-the-future-of-usa-swimming-in-trouble\/","title":{"rendered":"Is The Olympic Future of USA Swimming in Trouble?"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Eric Bugby, Swimming World Contributor<\/em><\/p>\n

\u201cNumbers never lie.\u201d It\u2019s a sports idiom. Like all sayings, they become overused, clich\u00e9, and eventually \u201cmiss the mark.\u201d But this one \u201cgoes the distance.\u201d Sorry. But numbers are important enough for ESPN to create a show outlining how they can shape the future.<\/p>\n

In swimming, the clock tells all. The scoreboard turns lambs into lions (or goats) and can even unite countries. There\u2019s another number that may reveal a deeper truth, medal count.<\/p>\n

Medal count can be perceived in two ways: (a) the overall depth of a team or country and (b) if you have Michael Phelps on your team.<\/p>\n

What do these numbers tell us? Can they predict future trends?<\/p>\n

Olympic Medals<\/h2>\n

\"olympic-medal-percentage\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Chart 1<\/strong> is the medal percentage, gold and total, of the United States (US) at the Olympic Games from 1996 to 2012.<\/p>\n

The US has consistently been the top dog at the most prestigious meet in the world. The US rose quickly from 1996 to 2004, where they took home half the gold medals in Athens. That number fell to 38 percent in 2008, which was fairly close to their total medal haul. Thank you, Michael.<\/p>\n

2012 saw a jump back to nearly half of the gold medals. Thank you, Missy. But there was also a decrease in total medals.<\/p>\n

Is it a better for the US to have a higher gold percentage or higher total percentage? Gold percentage tells us we have the best of the best. It\u2019s great for TV ratings and marketability of athletes. Total percentage shows a team\u2019s overall depth, and possibly, their future.<\/p>\n

Looking at the chart, 2008 was a down year. Yes, the 2008 Olympics in Beijing were a down year for the US. You won\u2019t hear anyone say that due to Phelp\u2019s record and the greatest swimming race in history. Thank you, Jason.<\/p>\n

\"BEIJING,

Photo Courtesy: Wally Skalij<\/p><\/div>\n

World Records<\/h2>\n

\"world-record-chart\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Chart 2<\/strong> is the total number of long course world records (WR) that the US, Australia, and China held at the end of 2005 and 2010 and the current number of WR each country currently holds.<\/p>\n

The total WR count shows something unique: the number of elite athletes from each country over the past ten years. Not depth and not what the future holds.<\/p>\n

What the numbers also do not show is how many unique athletes are represented each year. It\u2019s easy to assess that the US has not peaked, but is only getting better. Upon closer look, Michael Phelps currently holds 6 and Katie Ledecky holds 3. That\u2019s two athletes with over 50 percent of the total. China\u2019s 6 are held by 5 athletes.<\/p>\n

Australia is a world swimming power, there is no debate, but there is a downward trend since 2005. The numbers show either (a) the number of elite athletes in Australia is declining or (b) the world is catching up. James Magnussen and the Campbell sisters would say otherwise to the former. Unfortunately, the days of Stephanie Rice, Ian Thorpe, Grant Hackett, and Leisel Jones are long gone. Is this the future of the US?<\/p>\n

What\u2019s Next?<\/h2>\n

\"us-medal-count-chart\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Chart 3<\/strong> is the total medal percentage of the US from 2012 to 2014 at all international competitions.<\/p>\n

Ouch. That\u2019s the first word that comes to mind looking at this chart.<\/p>\n

Total medal count shows overall depth. The US was strong at the 2012 Olympics, winning the medal count, and maintaining their 30 percent average since 1996. The US clearly hasn\u2019t peaked in this regard.<\/p>\n

But is the US in a bear market? At the most important meet in 2013, the US only claimed 24 percent of the total medals. That number dipped to 12 percent at the 2014 Short Course Worlds.<\/p>\n

There are a number of reasons why this trend is occurring: focus is the Olympics, swimmers are in college, injuries, no Michael Phelps, etc. It doesn\u2019t explain why the depth of the US isn\u2019t represented. Even if the best American athletes aren\u2019t attending these meets, then why aren\u2019t other Americans on the podium? It\u2019s a question that needs to be asked to a country that places these meets on their quad plan.<\/p>\n

The youth trend is also disturbing. The US went home with 4 percent of the total medals at the 2014 Summer Youth Olympics. Clearly, other countries are placing a focus on their youth, developing talent, and taking the best to these meets. It is paying off. That experience is second to none.<\/p>\n

How are they doing it? Is it philosophy, training, technique, money, or something that we haven\u2019t asked yet?<\/p>\n

Where are the next stars? When will the next crop of elite athletes from the US rise? Will China, Australia, Great Britain, Japan, Brazil, France, or someone else get their hand on the wall first? This summer will showcase the world\u2019s talent and where the US truly stands after a poor 2013 and 2014.<\/p>\n

Sheer numbers will not cut it against a world swimming community that loves to compete, improve, and take their shots at the US.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Eric Bugby, Swimming World Contributor \u201cNumbers never lie.\u201d It\u2019s a sports idiom. Like all sayings, they become overused, clich\u00e9, and eventually \u201cmiss the mark.\u201d But this one \u201cgoes the<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":68,"featured_media":50334,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"dois","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[3,17,7],"tags":[707,499,37,51336,30801,123,2468,2458,25342,696,25031,5745,6302,35088,4312,142,755,48,165,62],"class_list":["post-135191","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured","category-commentary","category-usa","tag-athens","tag-beijing","tag-brazil","tag-eric-bugby","tag-espn-inc","tag-france","tag-grant-hackett","tag-ian-thorpe","tag-james-magnussen","tag-japan","tag-katie-ledecky","tag-leisel-jones","tag-michael-phelps","tag-stephanie-rice","tag-summer-olympics","tag-swimming","tag-the-2008-olympics","tag-the-olympic-games","tag-united-kingdom","tag-united-states"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"yoast_head":"\r\nIs The Future of USA Swimming in Trouble?<\/title>\r\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u201cNumbers never lie.\u201d It\u2019s a sports idiom. 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Like all sayings, they become overused, clich\u00e9, and eventually \u201cmiss the mark.\u201d But this one \u201cgoes the distance.\u201d Sorry. But numbers are important enough for ESPN to create a show outlining how they can shape the future. In swimming, the clock tells all. The scoreboard turns lambs into lions (or goats) and can even unite countries. There\u2019s another number that may reveal a deeper truth, medal count.","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/is-the-future-of-usa-swimming-in-trouble\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/is-the-future-of-usa-swimming-in-trouble\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/is-the-future-of-usa-swimming-in-trouble\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/vmrw8k5h.tinifycdn.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/USATSI_7766798-e1468594693255.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/vmrw8k5h.tinifycdn.com\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/USATSI_7766798-e1468594693255.jpg","width":1800,"height":1200,"caption":"Photo Courtesy: Andrew P. 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He coached for two years at Arizona State and swam at the University of Pittsburgh. Eric qualified for the 2004 Olympic Trials and ended 2003 with a FINA world ranking in the 100 backstroke. He currently competes in Masters swimming and sprint triathlons.","url":"https:\/\/www.swimmingworldmagazine.com\/news\/author\/eric-bugby\/"}]}},"cc_featured_image_caption":{"caption_text":"Photo Courtesy: Andrew P. 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