Will Michael Phelps Return to Swimming?

Column by John Lohn

BASKING RIDGE, New Jersey, November 22. WHERE does Michael Phelps stand? Will he return to the Superman who wowed us all at the Beijing Olympics? Will he be a notch below that level at the 2012 Games in London? When will he compete next, and what types of performances will we see? These are just a few of the questions being asked about Phelps these days.

Last week, as the USA Swimming Grand Prix season opened in Minnesota, fans were expecting to see Phelps in action. He was slated to contest a handful of events in the short-course competition, his name appearing on the psych sheet released in the days prior to the meet. Then, the day before the starting horn blared, it was revealed that Phelps would not attend.

A little more than two years following his difficult-to-comprehend exploits at the Water Cube, Phelps continues to cash in on his stardom. No one can blame him for that. It means making appearances for his sponsors and it also means the chance to play some golf, a new sport Phelps enjoys quite a bit. At some point, though, we all figure Phelps will return to the single-minded monster who dedicated himself to becoming the greatest swimmer in history.

Or, will he?

At this summer's Pan Pacific Championships in California, Phelps wasn't the big fish. That honor went to Ryan Lochte, the man who has pressed Phelps and is considered a contender to claim numerous gold medals in London. At Pan Pacs, Lochte walked away with six gold medals, including individual titles in the 200 and 400 individual medley events, the 200 freestyle and the 200 backstroke.

As for Phelps, he admitted to not being in the greatest shape and not dedicating himself to the sport the way he once did. He promised his approach would change and he would shift into top gear in order to have himself ready to roll for the 2011 World Championships in Shanghai, but more importantly, for the 2012 Olympics. That competition, after all, is expected to be his farewell to the sport, the last chapter in an epic sports novel.

Really, there was no reason to doubt Phelps' words and vow to return to peak form. He'd uttered those words before, following the 2005 World Champs in Montreal. Displeased with his performance North of the Border, caused by sponsorship obligations, Phelps swore things would change. They did. He looked good at the 2006 Pan Pacific Champs, then set the table for Beijing by dominating the 2007 World Championships in Melbourne.

So, we know the precedent has been set. But here is what's different. When Phelps made his promises in Montreal, he still had a lot to prove in the sport. He wanted to match and surpass Mark Spitz's iconic seven gold medals from the Munich Olympics. He had some times jotted down – and shared with only coach Bob Bowman – that he wanted to attain.

Now, what does Phelps have to prove? Nothing. If he leaves the sport tomorrow, he's the best to have ever stood on the starting block. Yes, he can become the all-time leader in Olympic medals in London, but he already has the most gold medals – by five. Again, there is nothing left to prove and maybe that's a reason Phelps wasn't in Minnesota and why he hasn't seemingly kicked his training into high gear for London. Maybe Mr. Motivation is lacking in that department.

After Lochte stole the show this summer, the consensus thought was that Phelps would be ticked and set out on a mission to reclaim the No. 1 spot in the world. No one will ever doubt his ability to dominant again – if he wants it. Hopefully, that scenario will still unfold, and Phelps and Lochte will provide some spectacular clashes over the next two years. Then again, maybe it won't come to fruition.

Only Phelps knows. And, until he wants to reveal his decision, the waiting game will be played.

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