USA TODAY Medal Predictions and “Inside Scoop” Analysis

PHOENIX, Ariz. August 2. SWIMINFO has provided its medal picks and analysis for Athens in its special Olympic section. Just for fun, we’ve also started a "Beat the Experts" contest you can also reach in our Olympic area.

In that same spirit, we will try to bring you the “best guesses” from others we find who venture into the unpredictable world of predictions. Today, we bring you the selections published by USA Today.

Hmmm. Pretty interesting. What do you think? Have you made out your choices? Can you do better?

Do it soon so you’ll still have time to change your mind before the swimming events start for real August 14, 2004

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USA TODAY staffers compiled the projections by analyzing competition results and world rankings and with input and information from the national and international governing bodies of Olympic sports, NBC’s 2004 Olympics website (nbcolympics.com) and sports-specific publications, including Real Judo magazine and The Chronicle of The Horse.

SWIMMING
SWIMMER TO WATCH: The USA's Michael Phelps will be swimming for a record eight gold medals — which would eclipse Mark Spitz's 1972 total of seven — if U.S. coaches pick him for all three U.S. relay teams.

Men

50 free
Gold: Gary Hall Jr., USA
Silver: Alexander Popov, Russia
Bronze: Roland Schoeman, South Africa
Inside scoop: Hall, who tied Anthony Ervin for 50 free gold in Sydney, swam the world's fastest time this year at the U.S. trials and wants to go out on top in his third Olympics.

100 free
Gold: Alexander Popov, Russia
Silver: Pieter van den Hoogenband, Netherlands
Bronze: Jason Lezak, USA
Inside scoop: Popov lost to van den Hoogenband in Sydney but beat the Dutchman at the 2003 worlds. With a win, Popov, 32, becomes the first male swimmer to win three Olympic titles in one individual event.

200 free
Gold: Pieter van den Hoogenband, Netherlands
Silver: Michael Phelps, USA
Bronze: Ian Thorpe, Australia
Inside scoop: Thorpe hasn't approached his world record in many months and Phelps still is developing in freestyle, leaving van den Hoogenband to crash the Games' glamour event.

400 free
Gold: Ian Thorpe, Australia
Silver: Grant Hackett, Australia
Bronze: Klete Keller, USA
Inside scoop: Thorpe must justify the public pressure put on countryman Craig Stevens to relinquish his 400 free spot after Thorpe DQed at trials by slipping off the starting block.

1500 free
Gold: Grant Hackett, Australia
Silver: Larsen Jensen, USA
Bronze: David Davies, Great Britain
Inside scoop: World recordholder Hackett hasn't lost a 1500 race since 1996 and is so dominant he won the final at the 2003 worlds by more than seven seconds.

100 back
Gold: Aaron Peirsol, USA
Silver: Matthew Welsh, Australia
Bronze: Arkady Vyatchanin, Russia
Inside scoop: The USA's Lenny Krayzelburg, defending Olympic champion in both backstroke events, could surprise for a medal but the glory this time goes to Peirsol.

200 back
Gold: Aaron Peirsol, USA
Silver: Matthew Welsh, Australia
Bronze: Arkady Vyatchanin, Russia
Inside scoop: Peirsol has won two world titles and set the world record in the 200 back since finishing second to U.S. teammate Lenny Krayzelburg in Sydney.

100 breast
Gold: Brendan Hansen, USA
Silver: Kosuke Kitajima, Japan
Bronze: James Gibson, Great Britain
Inside scoop: At the U.S. trials, Hansen broke both breaststroke world records Kitajima set while winning the 100 and 200 at last year's world championships.

200 breast
Gold: Kosuke Kitajima, Japan
Silver: Brendan Hansen, USA
Bronze: Dmitry Komornikov, Russia
Inside scoop: In the last two years Kitajima, the 5-9 swimmer known as the "Pocket Rocket," has lowered the world record twice in the 200. He'll want it back from Hansen.

100 fly
Gold: Michael Phelps, USA
Silver: Ian Crocker, USA
Bronze: Andriy Serdinov, Ukraine
Inside scoop: Phelps will be motivated to beat Crocker for the second time in four tries this year in order to earn a spot on the USA's medley relay finals team.

200 fly
Gold: Michael Phelps, USA
Silver: Takeshi Matsuda, Japan
Bronze: Takashi Yamamoto, Japan
Inside scoop: The 200 fly was the only event Phelps swam as a 15-year-old in Sydney. He finished fifth but less than a year later broke the world record.

200 IM
Gold: Michael Phelps, USA
Silver: Massimiliano Rosolino, Italy
Bronze: Laszlo Cseh, Hungary
Inside scoop: One reason Phelps dropped the 200 back from his Athens program was to not detract from his showcase 200 IM, which he won by more than three seconds at 2003 worlds.

400 IM
Gold: Michael Phelps, USA
Silver: Laszlo Cseh, Hungary
Bronze: Massimiliano Rosolino, Italy
Inside scoop: Cseh, recovering from a broken bone in his foot, finished nearly two seconds behind Phelps at last year's worlds. Phelps beat his own 400 IM world record at the U.S. trials.

4×100 free relay
Gold: USA
Silver: Australia
Bronze: Russia
Inside scoop: The U.S. team will be fired up to avenge its loss in the 400 free relay to the Aussies in Sydney, the USA's first-ever defeat at the Olympics.

4×200 free relay
Gold: Australia
Silver: USA
Bronze: Germany
Inside scoop: The Aussies won at the 2000 Olympics and at the last two world championships, a streak likely to continue as long as Ian Thorpe is on their side.

4×100 medley relay
Gold: USA
Silver: Japan
Bronze: Russia
Inside scoop: With potentially three world record-holders setting up the freestyle anchor, the U.S. team is an overwhelming favorite in an event the USA never has lost at the Games.

Women

50 free
Gold: Inge de Bruijn, Netherlands
Silver: Lisbeth Lenton, Australia
Bronze: Alison Sheppard, Great Britain
Inside scoop: De Bruijn won three golds and set three world records in Sydney, including the 50 free, an event she won at the 2003 worlds after not competing for two years.

100 free
Gold: Lisbeth Lenton, Australia
Silver: Inge de Bruijn, Netherlands
Bronze: Hanna-Maria Seppala, Finland
Inside scoop: Lenton broke de Bruijn's 4-year-old world record at the Australian Olympic trials in March, swimming almost a full second under her previous fastest time.

200 free
Gold: Franziska van Almsick, Germany
Silver: Petria Thomas, Australia
Bronze: Solenne Figues, France
Inside scoop: Van Almsick, with two of her eight Olympic medals in the 200 free, goes for her first gold in the event for which she skipped the 2003 worlds to prepare.

400 free
Gold: Hannah Stockbauer, Germany
Silver: Sachiko Yamada, Japan
Bronze: Camelia Potec, Romania
Inside scoop: Stockbauer finished sixth in Sydney, despite entering the race with the No. 1 world ranking. Yamada and Potec enter with the world's fastest times this year.

800 free
Gold: Hannah Stockbauer, Germany
Silver: Sachiko Yamada, Japan
Bronze: Diana Munz, USA
Inside scoop: Unless Munz scores an upset over two-time world champion Stockbauer, the U.S. women will leave without 800 free gold for the first time in six Olympics.

100 back
Gold: Natalie Coughlin, USA
Silver: Antje Buschschulte, Germany
Bronze: Katy Sexton, Great Britain
Inside scoop: World record-holder Coughlin, slowed by a virus at the 2003 worlds, can reclaim the event she stamped by becoming the first woman to swim it under a minute.

200 back
Gold: Katy Sexton, Great Britain
Silver: Reiko Nakamura, Japan
Bronze: Margaret Hoelzer, USA
Inside scoop: Sexton could become the first British woman to win an Olympic swimming title since 1960. Hoelzer finished second to Sexton at the 2003 worlds.

100 breast
Gold: Liesel Jones, Australia
Silver: Luo Xuejuan, China
Bronze: Tara Kirk, USA
Inside scoop: Jones won silver as a 14-year-old in Sydney. Kirk beat a deep field, including reigning world silver medalist Amanda Beard, at the U.S. trials.

200 breast
Gold: Amanda Beard, USA
Silver: Liesel Jones, Australia
Bronze: Hui Qi, China
Inside scoop: Jones broke Qi's world record on July 10 during heavy training, then two days later Beard, the reigning world champ, eclipsed the new mark at the U.S. trials.

100 fly
Gold: Petria Thomas, Australia
Silver: Inge de Bruijn, Netherlands
Bronze: Jenny Thompson, USA
Inside scoop: Although she's the reigning world champion in the 100 fly, Thompson is likely to come up short in her last bid for individual Olympic gold.

200 fly
Gold: Otylia Jedrzejczak, Poland
Silver: Yuko Nakanishi, Japan
Bronze: Petria Thomas, Australia
Inside scoop: Thomas has the world's fastest time this year, but Jedrzejczak is the reigning world champion. Jedrezejczak finished fifth in Sydney at age 16.

200 IM
Gold: Yana Klochkova, Ukraine
Silver: Amanda Beard, USA
Bronze: Katie Hoff, USA
Inside scoop: Since sweeping the IM events in Sydney, Klochkova has lost only once in major international competition — finishing second in the 200 at the 2001 worlds.

400 IM
Gold: Yana Klochkova, Ukraine
Silver: Katie Hoff, USA
Bronze: Eva Ristov, Hungary
Inside scoop: Klochkova's experience could carry her past Hoff, 15, who emerged in recent months to become the youngest member of the U.S. Olympic team.

4×100 free relay
Gold: USA
Silver: Australia
Bronze: Germany
Inside scoop: The USA's Jenny Thompson, likely to be on the U.S. relay team despite a subpar 100 free at trials, needs two medals to have more than any swimmer in Olympic history.

4×200 free relay
Gold: USA
Silver: Australia
Bronze: Great Britain
Inside scoop: The U.S. team has won both golds since this event was added at the '96 Games. The Brits were fourth at last year's worlds and could be the greatest challenge.

4×100 medley relay
Gold: Australia
Silver: USA
Bronze: China
Inside scoop: China claimed last year's world title while the USA and Australia finished 2-3. The U.S. team hasn't finished out of first at the Games since 1988.

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