Texas Longhorns in Complete Control of Team Title Race at Men’s NCAAs

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By David Rieder

IOWA CITY − Even after just three of six sessions at men’s NCAAs, the team title has already been decided. The Texas Longhorns were absolutely dominant in Friday morning’s prelim session, highlighted by a monstrous 100 fly where they put six in the championship final. 14 individuals will represent the now-heavily-favored Longhorns in this evening’s finals.

Jack Conger and Joseph Schooling entered as the two big favorites in the 100 fly, and Tripp Cooper joined them among the top eight seeds. But few expected Will Glass, John Murray, and Matt Ellis to all get into the top eight to make it a truly historic final for Texas. Beyond that, Will Licon looks like a national championship threat in the 400 IM, while Clay Youngquist (200 free) and Conger (100 back) will both be in the hunt as well.

Texas national championship teams have been known for their stars − think Ian Crocker and Brendan Hansen in the early 2000s, and Ricky Berens and Dave Walters in 2010. But this year, they have some major depth, and everyone has contributed. Of their 18 individual swims in prelims, 13 came in times faster than seed times. Take out Conger and Schooling in the 100 fly − both were expected to cruise into the final − and that’s an insane 13 out of 16 time drops.

Based on prelims seedings for tonight’s finals, Texas should add 80 points from their initial psych sheet projections. They now have greater than a 150-point cushion based on last night’s scores and projections for the rest of the meet. And after Friday’s prelims, a team has started to separate from the rest of the pack for second place: the California Golden Bears.

During day two finals, the Bears are seeded to score 43 more points than the psych sheet projected. Cal has three legitimate national title contenders, Josh Prenot in the 400 IM, Chuck Katis in the 100 breast, and Ryan Murphy in the 100 back. And then there’s Adam Hinshaw, who came out of heat one of the 400 IM to qualify for the championship final.

The other five teams originally projected to be in the mix for the team title continued their fall back to the pack during prelims on Friday. Michigan, Florida, and USC look like the squads that will battle for the remaining spots in the top five.

Team Performance vs. Psych Sheet, Day Two Prelims

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On the Move in 2015

On Thursday, 4:13s did not qualify for the A-final of the 500 free, and 200 IM performances in the 1:42-low range relegated competitors to the consolation final. Today, it was more of the same, as 1:33.27 qualified Dylan Carter for the B-final of the 200 free, while someone swam in a 51 100 breast and still did not make the A-final.

But do these times actually surpass by that much the ones clocked in the past? Check out these numbers below, comparing this year’s eighth-place times and 16th-place times to last year’s.

Eighth-Place Times, 2014 vs. 2015

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16th-Place Times, 2014 vs. 2015

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None of the five events got slower from last year, and of these ten comparisons, only one stayed the same − eighth place in the 100 fly, where Matt Ellis’ 45.92 matched what Doug Reynolds swam a year ago. So if any swimmer complains that he swam well, but the meet got so much faster from last year, and hence, he missed finals, he’s probably right.

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