Peter Busch Predicts Night Four of USA Swimming National Championships

PHOENIX, Arizona. July 10. MORNING Swim Show host Peter Busch gives his Day 4 Finals predictions.

Now I owe Elizabeth Beisel an apology too. How could I underestimate one of the all-time great guests of the Morning Swim Show? I was a little surprised that Julia Smit wasn't faster in the 400 IM, given her magnificent 200 earlier in the week. Perhaps she's saving her best for Rome.

All in all, Thursday's picks were pretty solid though. I was right on the money with Phelps' 100 fly forecast, coming within .06 seconds. I had Dara Torres winning the 50 by a half-body length. Even a pick I got wrong, the men's 50, was pretty darn close given the event. I had Jones winning with a 21.60, he tied for second with a 21.55.

So enough back patting, it's a new day. So without further ado, here's what I see happening in the IU Natatorium Friday night.

Men's 100 Free
Too bad Phelps scratched the event because of a stiff neck. Now he's going to have to watch Nathan Adrian take his American record. Adrian let off the gas big time at the end of his prelims swim, and still almost broke 48 seconds. Tonight, Adrian goes 47.41 and gives Phelps something to shoot for when he leads off the 4×100 in Rome.

Women's 200 Fly
Elaine Breeden's prelims time was .91 seconds faster than Kathleen Hersey. Wanna hear something weird? That is almost identical to what happened at the NCAA Championships in March. Breeden was .89 seconds faster in the morning. Breeden went on to win the finals as well by a much slimmer margin, but anyone who saw that race knows that Hersey would have won had she turned on the jets just a yard sooner. Tonight, Hersey's experience pays off and she overtakes Breeden in the final 5 meters. I'll say 2:06.1 for a time.

Men's 200 IM
I wonder if Ryan Lochte misses Michael Phelps in this event. Sure it's no fun getting second place all the time, but I'll bet a part of Lochte wishes he had someone to push him like only Phelps can. No offense to Tyler Clary, but this race will be a blow out tonight. Lochte wins with a 1:54.9.

Women's 200 Back
Elizabeth, you will win this event tonight. Oh wait, I should probably clarify…Elizabeth Beisel, you will win this event tonight. There will be a challenge from budding star Elizabeth Pelton, but Beisel has the goods on the rest of the field in this event and wins with a 2:07.1.

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