Olympic Preview: Men’s 400 Individual Medley

By John Lohn

CRANBURY, New Jersey, January 1. THE second installment of SwimmingWorldMagazine.com's 32-week Olympic preview takes a look at the men's 400 individual medley. The series, which debuted last week by analyzing the women's 400 I.M., will lead up to the Olympic Games in Beijing. Be sure to check in each Tuesday for the event-by-event breakdown and feel free to weigh in with opinions by utilizing the Reaction Time feature on the site.

Historical Perspective
Defending Champion: Michael Phelps (United States) – 4:08.26.
World Record: Michael Phelps (United States) – 4:06.22.
Most Titles: United States (Six) – Richard Roth (1964); Charles Hickcox (1968); Rod Strachan (1976); Tom Dolan (1996/2000); Michael Phelps (2004).
Tightest Race: At the 1972 Games in Munich, Sweden's Gunnar Larsson captured the gold medal over American Tim McKee. While both men touched in 4:31.98, the race was taken out to the thousandth of the second, with Larsson prevailing 4:31.981 to McKee's effort of 4:31.983. Today, a finish of that sort would result in a shared medal.

Here's a look at the individuals who will be among the medal contenders in Beijing.

Michael Phelps: It all starts with the man who is the defending champion, world-record holder and, probably, the greatest swimmer to ever walk the face of the earth. Four years ago, Phelps opened his Olympic campaign with gold in this event, setting a global standard in the process. He finished the Athens Games with six gold medals and two bronze medals.

Phelps will be the overwhelming favorite to win a second straight title in this discipline. At last year's World Championships in Melbourne, Phelps won the 400 IM in a world-record time of 4:06.22. It didn't matter that it was his fifth individual event of the competition. Phelps simply dug deep and put an exclamation point on a spectacular week.

Phelps is the only man in history to go under 4:09, doing so by nearly three seconds. If he's on his game in Beijing, it's difficult to foresee anyone pushing Phelps for the top step on the podium. Unlike the World Champs, where the event is the last on the individual slate, Phelps will swim the 400 IM fresh in China, provided everything goes according to plan at the United States Trials in Omaha.

Ryan Lochte: The American had a breakthrough year in 2007, a considerable accomplishment considering his already impressive portfolio. At the World Championships, Lochte won six medals, including a silver in the 400 IM He posted a personal-best time of 4:09.74, the sixth-fastest performance in history and making him the third-fastest performer.

Like Phelps, Lochte will embrace a jam-packed schedule at the U.S. Trials. When Lochte went the 4:09 in Melbourne, he managed a sizable drop from his previous best, a sign that he is still gaining a feel for the event. If Lochte gets out of the Olympic Trials, figure him as a leading contender for a medal, one of which could be many.

Laszlo Cseh: The Hungarian didn't have a showing at the World Champs that reflected his ability. The 2005 world titlist in the 400 IM, Cseh was fifth in Melbourne, posting a time (4:14.76) that was well off his personal best. Cseh has a top mark of 4:09.63, an effort that is second in history to only the top outings of Phelps. There's no doubting that Cseh, who recently cooked up short-course world marks in the 200 and 400 medley events, will be a factor for a medal in Beijing. To push Phelps, however, he's going to need a significant drop of the clock.

Luca Marin: What's sad about the Italian is that he's been primarily known for being Laure Manaudou's boyfriend, though that relationship is now over. Newsflash: This guy is one hell of a swimmer, confirmed by his bronze medal in the 400 IM at the 2007 World Championships. In Melbourne, Marin used a sterling freestyle leg to touch the wall in 4:09.98, making him the fourth-fastest man in history. Marin is the second-best European hope for a medal in Beijing, just a tick behind Cseh.

Erik Vendt: Although he didn't qualify to swim the event at last year's World Champs, Vendt is not someone who can be overlooked as a Beijing medal contender. After all, he's the two-time defending silver medalist, finishing second to Tom Dolan in 2000 and second to Phelps in Athens. Training with Phelps at Club Wolverine, under Bob Bowman's watch, no one would be surprised if Vendt approaches or surpasses his personal best of 4:11.27.

If Vendt can successfully navigate the American Trials and grab one of the two spots up for grabs, he'd immediately be considered a medal favorite. Face it, whichever swimmers the United States send to China will be expected to bring home hardware. Vendt, also a medal contender in the 1500 free, will have a tremendous training base and the man has the heart to make it three medals in a row in this grueling event.

Ous Mellouli: He was fourth at the World Champs, clocking in at 4:11.68, but the Tunisian had that effort stricken from the record for a positive doping test. Mellouli was taking a banned medication to aid in his studying while in school at USC, but was fortunate that his penalty does not interfere with the Olympics. Therefore, he could be a medal contender in the 400 IM. He obviously has the skill to package a time in medal territory.

Thiago Pereira: The Brazilian will have an entire nation following his exploits, as Pereira has become a sports icon in his homeland. Not bad for a non-soccer player. His finest effort in 2007 was a gold-medal swim at the Pan American Games. While the victory was important, it was his time of 4:11.14 that opened eyes and made Pereira worth mentioning in terms of Beijing and medal possibilities. He might be better suited to the 200 IM, but an appearance in the Olympic final in the longer medley is likely.

Pat Mellors: Ranked sixth in the world in 2007, on the strength of a 4:12.94 effort at the World University Games, Mellors has turned some heads in the United States. Then again, he has the likes of Phelps, Lochte and Vendt to deal with, not exactly a pleasant scenario. Mellors will need a major drop in time to contend for a bid to Beijing.

The Other Hungarians: Hungary has long been known for developing standout performers in the medley events and there will be a battle to represent the country in Beijing. While the aforementioned Cseh is likely to be the main guy, Gergo Kis (4:14.17) and David Verraszto (4:14.46) ranked seventh and eighth in the world in 2007. Then there's Tamas Kerekjarto, who was eighth in the 400 IM at the last World Championships.

The Others: American Eric Shanteau has his best chance at an Olympic berth in the 200 breaststroke, but he did rank 13th in 2007 in the 400 IM. Riaan Schoeman (South Africa) was rated 10th last year and the Greek tandem of Ioannis Drymonakos and Vasilios Demetis were slotted 11th and 14th. Italian Alessio Boggiatto and Aussie Travis Nederpelt could also make some noise.

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