Morning Splash: 18 Races, 18 Bold Predictions for Women’s NCAA Championships

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Photos Courtesy: Peter H. Bick & Matt Rubel

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By David Rieder.

The women’s NCAA championships have arrived. Just a few hours from now, the competition pool at the IUPUI Natatorium will play host to the 800 free relays at the women’s NCAA championships.

At this point, you are probably previewed-out and ready to see some actual racing. (If you’re not, here’s a big-picture view of the NCAA meets, a scoring projection breakdown, a diving analysis and two episodes of Off Deck devoted exclusively to the women’s meet.)

But before the 6 p.m. session start time tonight, we’ve got time for a few race-by-race predictions. So without further comment, here’s one man’s thoughts on who will win (and finish second and third) in the 13 individual events and five relay this week.

Day One

800 Free Relay
1. Stanford
2. Cal
3. USC
*American and NCAA record on alert, even if Simone Manuel sits out.

Day Two

200 Free Relay
1. Stanford
2. Cal
3. Georgia
*Farida Osman could not hold off Manuel on the anchor leg at Pac-12s. Will it happen again?

500 Free
1. Katie Ledecky, Stanford
2. Leah Smith, Virginia
3. Cierra Runge, Wisconsin
*Is 4:24 realistic for Ledecky? And could another woman (Smith?) join Ledecky under 4:30?

200 IM
1. Ella Eastin, Stanford
2. Kathleen Baker, Cal
3. Madisyn Cox, Texas
*Contrast in strategy among top three should make for interesting race.

50 Free
1. Simone Manuel, Stanford
2. Abbey Weitzeil, Cal
3. Olivia Smoliga, Georgia
*Defending NCAA champion Smoliga is a heavy underdog coming in.

400 Medley Relay
1. Stanford
2. Cal
3. Indiana
*Lilly King will give Indiana almost a two-second advantage on breaststroke.

Day Three

400 IM
1. Ella Eastin, Stanford
2. Sydney Pickrem, Texas A&M
3. Madisyn Cox, Texas
*No Ledecky, no problem for Stanford, as Eastin could challenge Ledecky’s American record and Allie Szekely could also score big here.

100 Fly
1. Noemie Thomas, Cal
2. Janet Hu, Stanford
3. Sarah Gibson, Texas A&M
*Louise Hansson, Farida Osman, Gia Dalesandro and Hellen Moffitt all in contention to win the meet’s most wide-open race.

200 Free
1. Katie Ledecky, Stanford
2. Simone Manuel, Stanford
3. Mallory Comerford, Louisville
*Teammates Ledecky and Manuel could push each other under 1:40.

100 Breast
1. Lilly King, Indiana
2. Andrea Cottrell, Louisville
3. Laura Simon, Virginia
*King will win big, but other places open for taking. Missouri’s Katharine Ross is a darkhorse.

100 Back
1. Ally Howe, Stanford
2. Kathleen Baker, Cal
3. Olivia Smoliga, Georgia
*Can others join Howe below the 50-second barrier?

200 Medley Relay
1. Stanford
2. Cal
3. Arizona
*Young Wildcats will threaten the top two.

Day Four

1650 Free
1. Katie Ledecky, Stanford
2. Leah Smith, Virginia
3. G Ryan, Michigan
*Who does not get lapped by Ledecky?

200 Back
1. Kathleen Baker, Cal
2. Janet Hu, Stanford
3. Danielle Galyer, Kentucky
*Defending champion Galyer enters seeded 10th. The American record (Elizabeth Pelton, 1:47.84) could come under fire.

100 Free
1. Simone Manuel, Stanford
2. Abbey Weitzeil, Cal
3. Mallory Comerford, Louisville
*Speaking of records, a sub-46-second swim might be possible.

200 Breast
1. Lilly King, Indiana
2. Kierra Smith, Minnesota
3. Sydney Pickrem, Texas A&M
*King will go for it on the first 100, and Smith has unmatched closing speed, setting up a tight finish.

200 Fly
1. Ella Eastin, Stanford
2. Katie McLaughlin, Cal
3. Sarah Gibson, Texas A&M
*Eastin’s underwater skills and closing speed will be hard to match.

400 Free Relay
1. Stanford
2. USC
3. Georgia
*Unless something drastic changes, the Cardinal will have already wrapped up the team title at this point.

Agree? Of course you don’t. Honestly, even as I read back through what I wrote, I’m having plenty of doubts. Expect tight races and at least someone I mentioned here to get locked out of the A-final.

Leave comments below to tell me where I went wrong and, more importantly, what you think will actually happen.

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Michael Maloney
Michael Maloney
7 years ago

The TIME has come…….IT will decide ALL….omg so excited

completelyconquered
completelyconquered
7 years ago

Simone over Ledecky in the 200 free.

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