The Morning Swim Show, July 26, 2012: Previewing Women’s Olympic Swimming Races

PHOENIX, Arizona, July 26. TODAY’S edition of The Morning Swim Show is the first of a two-part preview of the swimming races that begin Saturday at the Olympic Games.

Tiffany Elias and John Lohn, both of whom will be in the London Aquatics Centre, talk about the women’s events today, and some of the athletes that could be on the medal stand in London. Be sure to visit SwimmingWorld.TV for more video interviews. And visit our Olympics landing page for more Olympic-related content!

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Morning Swim Show Transcripts
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(Note: This is an automated service where some typos and grammatical errors may occur.)

Tiffany Elias: This is the Morning Swim Show for Thursday, July 26, 2012. I am your host Tiffany Elias and the Olympic Games are only days away. The Opening Ceremony begins tomorrow, and Saturday we’ll kick off with Day 1 of the swimming competition. Today we are going to analyze the women’s events and helping me do that in the FINIS Monitor is John Lohn, Swimming World’s Senior Writer. Now John I will be seeing you in a few short days in London but thanks for joining me ahead of time to analyze the women’s side of things.

John Lohn: Yeah, can’t wait to get over there Tiffany. We are just– we are going to be in for a real treat I think.

Tiffany Elias: Yeah, it is going to be really exciting. Now, in front of me I have some predictions that you have made for each event going in to London. Let’s start off with the sprint freestyle because it is the same swimmer you have on top for both the 50 and the 100 freestyle Ranomi Kromowidjojo. You have her taking the 50 and the 100 so still set with that prediction?

John Lohn: Yeah, I think she is just– she has been too good this year to not go with her. The consistency the speeds in there; she is by far the fastest woman — 52 in the 100, 52.7 I think in the 100 or 24 low in the 50 free, both fast times ever in a textile suit. There is just no way you can’t go with her.

Tiffany Elias: Now Britta Steffen she is the defending champion of both those events and also the current world record holder, but you are foreseeing a bronze medal in both those events for her so is she just that far behind Kromowidjojo?

John Lohn: Well, I think I actually went on a limb even having her in the medal predictions. While she is the defending champion in both she hasn’t exactly lit it up since Beijing there are some down times. She showed at European championships that she was on her way back and I think that was a good sign, maybe she has just gonna click when it matters the most, but I think it might be even a reach to have her in there. I figure let me go with the veterans, something with experience and who knows how to get it done when it matters.

Tiffany Elias: Well, similar stories for the 200 and 400 freestyle at least for the 3rd place position. You have those defending champions still making the medal stand, but right behind. Allison Schmitt leading the 200 freestyle and she is going to come in second behind Camille Muffat for the 400, so in our middle distance freestyle is really looking like a showdown between Muffat and Schmitt?

John Lohn: Yeah, I really like the way Allison looked in Omaha, but and even when I picked her to win the 200 free I really had a hard time doing that just with the way the French women Camille Muffat has been performing. Look she has been so consistent. 1:54 a couple of times in the 200. She has been 4:01 I believe in the 400. It was really tough to pull the trigger. I just really like the way Allison Schmitt has been continuing to swim well so I gave her the sprint, the sprint of the middle distances in 200. I gave Muffat the 400 and I think we are going to be– I think those two races there could be some of the best we will see on the women’s program.

Tiffany Elias: Allison was so dominant at the U.S. trials so I think that is going to give her a lot of confidence going into London, but now, where is Federica Pellegrini on this?

John Lohn: Well she is going to be there. She is too talented to not be. She had experience on the international stage as an Olympic champion, as a world champion and then you have to add in Rebecca Adlington from Great Britain who I guess will talk about a little more in the 800. She is the reigning champ in the 400. These are just stacked events and that is the way things go with the Olympics you have these events where there are 6 to 7 deep in terms of potential medalists.

Tiffany Elias: Yeah there are definitely a lot of depth in these events. Speaking of the 800 you have Rebecca Adlington coming back to win the 800, but I think the story line here is Katie Ledecky in a potential run for that silver medal.

John Lohn: The question with Katie Ledecky is well I guess there are two questions. Number one, can she repeat what she did at trials when she had a career best and how much faster can she get. We have seen major jumps in her performances, dropping time by sizable margins over the past 6 to 7 months and now the question is what does 4 more weeks give her. When you are 15 years old sometimes all you need is 4 more weeks to really crank it up and deliver another personal best. She is going to need that if she wants to be in the mix with Adlington.

Tiffany Elias: Well I definitely think based off how she handled trials, she just doesn’t seem intimidated for her age. So I am not sure that we will see a case of stage fright getting to the young swimmer, but I definitely — it will be interesting to see what the additional couple weeks gives her base.

John Lohn: Right.

Tiffany Elias: Moving into the backstroke, are both of these clear race as for Missy Franklin?

John Lohn: The 200 is. I can’t see anybody taking her down her there. I am interested in the 200 to see what Kirsty Coventry has. She is looking for a third straight title. Don’t see it happening. I think a medal is also going to be a difficult ask for her. The 100 back is going to be a little tougher for Missy. She has her own teammate in Rachel Bootsma, Emily Seebohm from Australia. This might be the most– this might be the deepest event on the program for the women. I just think Missy is going to get it done in both because her talent is ridiculously off the charts and that a sweep is what I am going with there, but I do feel better about the 200 back.

Tiffany Elias: Yeah, I would agree with that prediction. And we were also hoping for the world record in the 200 backstroke at trials. She was just off of it, but I don’t want to say that is in the bag, but I think the chances are pretty good in that 200.

John Lohn: I think it is a much better shot. I think we will see a 2:04 from her.

Tiffany Elias: All right so similar to the backstroke on the breaststroke side, Rebecca Soni ,100 breaststroke, 200 breaststroke. She has been the queen going into these events, but we saw a devastating loss in that 100 breaststroke at trials, not devastating but I think a big upset when everybody really assumed she was going to get it, but Breeja Larson in there for the touch, but on the Olympic platform do you think that is going to be a sweep as well?

John Lohn: I see Rebecca winning both of these. I don’t think she was concerned with peeking at all with trials. I think everything has been focused on wanting, getting the job done there, I think we will see her take both of these and reaffirm her status as the undisputed queen of the breaststroke. I am curious to see in the 100 what Leisel Jones of Australia does. She is looking to medal at her fourth straight Olympics in the 100 breast, that would be an unprecedented feat.

Tiffany Elias: Yeah, I agree with that as well. I think she is going to be a contender in the 100 but 200 like Missy Franklin, the U.S.A women are looking really strong in those stroke events. Now moving in to the 100 and 200 butterfly, some events that the U.S isn’t so deep in. On the 100 side though Dana Vollmer I think is going to be in the mix. She has had really stellar and strong 100 butterflies leading up. Sarah Sjostrom though, she is going to be want to beat there in the 100 butterfly.

John Lohn: That should be– that should just be a head-to-head showdown. I can’t see anybody else coming out to battle with Vollmer and Sjostrom in the 100 fly. It is going to be a matter of Vollmer taking a race out and then Sjostrom trying to track her down over the last 15 to 20 meters, so it will be a different style there. It could see 55-high for the first time which would be pretty unbelievable, both women had had tremendous seasons prepping for it, so that should be one that gets things started off the back that is a Day 1, Day 2 event.

Tiffany Elias: All right now Natsumi Hoshi in the 200 butterfly, do the U.S have a real chance of medaling in this event?

John Lohn: I don’t see it and to be honest this is the event I had the most difficult time picking any of the medalists because I thought you can throw a blanket over 5 to 7 of them. You don’t even– Chinese are sending Liu Zige who is the defending champ and she was terrible at trials and there was even question that at one point she was going to even be on the Chinese Olympic team. They gave her the pass to go so maybe she gets everything right and clicks when she needs to, but this is Ellen Gandy from Great Britain and Katinka Hossz? from Hungary, Hoshi from Japan. It is a really difficult event to pick at the top with the exception of — I just don’t see the Americans battling in for any of these top 3 spots.

Tiffany Elias: Now, moving on to the 200 and 400 IM these are some interesting events as well for the Americans on the 200 IM side, Stephanie Rice is going to be the defending champion but also out in front is Ye Shiwen of China. This is going to be a pretty tough race too, but also your predictions and where U.S.A falls in that 2 IM?

John Lohn: I think Caitlin Leverenz and Ariana Kukors would both make the final so you get to the final and you give yourself a chance, but the way Ye Shiwen closed last year at the world championships, if you remember that her freestyle leg, she blew everybody out of the water to win the gold at the world champs, and if she is even lurking at the 150 mark forget about it. I think I don’t know if there is anybody that can handle her over that last lap. Stephanie Rice will be there. So it will definitely be an exciting race, but I do like the Chinese youngster.

Tiffany Elias: All right, so moving on to the 4 IM, Beisel on top. I do think this is going to be her event. I feel confident in this 4 IM for her.

John Lohn: This is where she breaks through and gets that Olympic Gold Medal. She was 4th as a real youngster in Beijing. She has been so consistent on the international stage. Look, nobody expects, a lot like Ryan Lochte on the Men’s side. Nobody expects anything from Elizabeth during the middle of the season. She is broken down from Gregg Troy’s training, but when it is time for the big meets, they always hit. She is the world champion. She looked great at trials and I think she comes in here carrying a lot of confidence and really looking to establish herself as that premiere 400 IMer in the world.

Tiffany Elias: All right so now looking on the team front moving into the relays, we have got U.S.A on top for the 400 medley and the 800 freestyle, but do you foresee some challenges in that 4×100 freestyle relay with the Netherlands, given Ranomi Kromowidjojo out in front?

John Lohn: Yeah, I think that the Dutch returned their team from the, that is not only the reigning Olympic champ but it is also one of the last two world titles so they had a really solid team across the board when you look at Kromowidjojo, Femke Heemskerk’s there, Marleen Veldhuis, Inge Dekker, that is probably the crew they are going to go with. That might be just a little too much for anybody else to handle. It is a solid American squad. The Australians are very strong, they will be there. You don’t know exactly what China is going to bring to the table but you do know they will be competitive.

Tiffany Elias: All right, so overall in the team standings, who is U.S.A.’s biggest competition?

John Lohn: I think you have to look at Australia that is just the way it has shaken out over how many decades now. They have a solid team. You can’t. You go along each event. You have Kylie Palmer in the middle distance events. You have Cate Campbell in the sprints. Leiston Pickett and Leisel Jones in terms of the breaststrokes, Jessicah Schipper, Alicia Coutts The names go on and on for Australia in terms of being able to field really strong medal contenders so that should be the team that gives the United States a run for the lead in the medal count.

Tiffany Elias: All right John, well I look forward to watching these races with you live in London. Thanks for joining us today and we will see you tomorrow to recap the guy’s races heading into London in just a few days.

John Lohn: Sounds good Tiffany, thanks.

Tiffany Elias: Thanks John. Well, that will conclude today’s Morning Swim Show. Join us for part 2 tomorrow when we will discuss the men’s events in London. Remember to keep up with all the results and news throughout the Olympic Games on swimmingworld.com and also by following us on Facebook and Twitter. John and I will be on site in London reporting back to swimming world, so make sure to keep up with all the coverage. Tune in to Swimming World TV Warm Down Show after each final session for an in-depth analysis of each night. I am Tiffany Elias and we will see you tomorrow.

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