NCAA Division I Men’s Championships Predictions Review

Column by John Lohn

BASKING RIDGE, New Jersey, March 29. GOING to take a page out of the book of Swimming World managing editor Jason Marsteller this week and review my selections for the NCAA Championships. As Jason mentioned last week in his women's review, these picks are made in January to meet a publication deadline, making the process a bit frustrating.

That said, I'm walking away this year fairly pleased with the way things broke down, as Texas supported my choice for the Longhorns as NCAA champions. Meanwhile, I was lucky enough that the 10 teams picked to be in the top-10 managed to occupy those slots, though not in the exact order as predicted. Still, I'll take it. More than anything, once the meet got rolling after the virus situation, it was a superb team race and exhibition of swimming.

TEXAS
Prediction: First
Finish: First
Points: 500
Review: The Longhorns only captured two titles, freshman Austin Surhoff in the 200 individual medley and the 800 freestyle relay. However, the squad got the job done in team fashion, scoring 500 points to register a 30.5-point triumph over Cal. The win handed legendary coach Eddie Reese his 10th NCAA title and he accomplished the feat with a squad made up of entirely American athletes.

The Longhorns set the tone for their triumph by closing Day Two with the 800 free relay win, then carried that momentum into the final day of prelims, where Texas was dynamite. Neil Caskey delivered a critical leg on the 800 free relay and a balanced effort across the board was a key for the three-day meet. Credit certainly needs to go to divers Drew Livingston and Matt Cooper, whose points were invaluable.

CAL
Prediction: Fifth
Finish: Second
Points: 469.5
Review: This is one I wish I could have back as the Golden Bears had a tremendous meet, leading the competition after the second night. Coach Dave Durden guided his team to four relay victories, with freshman Tom Shields prevailing in the 100 butterfly and sprint standout Nathan Adrian capturing the 100 free on the last night of action.

During the last day of prelims, the Bears were hurt by a disqualification of Sean Mahoney in the 200 breaststroke and several near-misses for night swims in the event. Cal also didn't score a point in diving, which turned out to hurt. Nonetheless, it was a heck of a meet for Durden & Co.

ARIZONA
Prediction: Second
Finish: Third
Points: 387
Review: The Wildcats finished just a spot below where they were forecast, so this pick went well. As the meet progressed, Arizona got stronger, a sign of recovery from the illness that hampered the Wildcats as part of the epidemic that delayed the meet. The last night was Arizona's strongest, featuring a Clark Burckle win in the 200 breaststroke and a Cory Chitwood first-place finish in the 200 backstroke.

STANFORD
Prediction: Fourth
Finish: Fourth
Points: 369
Review: Had this pick right on the money as the Cardinal edged Florida for the fourth position. Stanford was one of the teams hit by illness prior to the meet and it's tough to gauge how many more points could have been scored had the virus not plagued the team. Eugene Godsoe was dynamite, winning the 100 backstroke and clocking a sub-45 time leading off the 400 medley relay. Meanwhile, Chad LaTourette exhibited why he is a young star in the distance events for the U.S., capturing the 1650 free.

FLORIDA
Prediction: Seventh
Finish: Fifth
Points: 364
Review: Florida is an example of why we wish the deadline for picking the order of finish could be pushed back. Tabbed to be seventh, the Gators likely would have been picked higher after seeing their efforts at the SEC Champs. The impact of Conor Dwyer was underestimated as he won the 200 and 500 freestyles. Shaune Fraser repeated in the 200 butterfly.

AUBURN
Prediction: Third
Finish: Sixth
Points: 277.5
Review: The Tigers slipped three spots from where I had them finishing and didn't have nearly the meet many expected. Although it wouldn't have changed its position in the final standings, Auburn finished the competition on a sour note, false-starting in the 400 free relay. Kohlton Norys, the defending champ in the 100 back, didn't even make it back for a night swim in the event. Better weekends await the Tigers.

MICHIGAN
Prediction: Sixth
Finish: Seventh
Points: 204
Review: Pleased with this pick, as the Wolverines finished just a place below where they were pegged. Tyler Clary repeated as champion in the 400 individual medley, but was surprisingly upset in the 200 backstroke by Arizona's Cory Chitwood. If the Wolverines can add some sprinting to the equation (expected with Mike Bottom coaching), look for movement upward in the future.

GEORGIA
Prediction: Ninth
Finish: Eighth
Points: 143
Review: Again, satisfied with this selection. Although the disqualification of Mark Dylla, the apparent champ of the 200 fly, wasn't a good note on the final night, the Bulldogs looked good for a top-10 finish the entire meet.

OHIO STATE
Prediction: Tenth
Finish: Ninth
Points: 136.5
Review: When this choice was made back in January, there was some uneasiness. Then the Buckeyes won the Big Ten title and I felt better. Ultimately, OSU was balanced and got scoring in several spots. A Day One disqualification in the 200 freestyle relay was probably the difference between the Buckeyes placing eighth.

VIRGINIA
Prediction: Eighth
Finish: Tenth
Points: 123
Review: The Cavaliers were two places lower than anticipated, but not too bad of a call. Matt McLean didn't have the meet he was expected to have, but Virginia's relays were solid and tallied enough points for a top-10 showing.

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