The Ecstasy...and the Agony
Lifelong dreams, nurtured by years of dedication, will be fulfilled at the U.S. Olympic Trials in July, but more will be cruelly shattered. By Phillip Whitten

It's almost become a clich‚: The U.S. Olympic Trials, with its "Do or Die" imperative, is the world's most pressure-packed meet. It's the only meet where second is first and third is last.

This year, the Trials will be held in a temporary outdoor pool in Long Beach, Calif., only a stone's throw from the site of the 1976 Trials. As always, there will be drama, elation and heartbreak in every event. Here lifelong dreams, nurtured by years of dedication, will be fulfilled, but more will be cruelly shattered.

Favorites will win, of course, but someone, imbued with the fire of Zeus, will emerge from grey anonymity to become an Olympian.

In 2004, swimming will be the marquis sport for NBC and the U.S. public. It always is one of the top three or four sports, at least for its week of glory, but this year may well be different.

First of all, the competition has faded away: track and field is embroiled in a series of embarrassing doping scandals; gymnastics has no identifiable superstar personality who ranks among the world's best; and the U.S. public has soured on the antics of spoiled, egotistical NBA players.

Secondly, U.S. swimming boasts several genuine athletes with the potential to win multiple medals. What's more, these are thoughtful, articulate, photogenic young women and men, the kind of kids Americans always say they want as role models for their youngsters.

Of course, to be embraced by the American public, they'll have to win. And that won't be easy. Top swimmers seem to come from everywhere these days, and Uncle Sam's kids will have to face strong, determined opposition from Australia, Japan, Germany, Britain, Holland, France, Italy, Hungary, Russia, Ukraine, Sweden, Poland, South Africa and elsewhere.

Michael
Michael Phelps, of course, will be "The Man." Intense media attention will be focused on the just-turned 19-year-old superstar's pursuit of Mark Spitz's mythic seven gold medals/seven world records from Munich in 1972, arguably the greatest feat in Olympic history.

And Michael, selected by our sister publication, Swimming World, as 2003's "World Swimmer of the Year", will be going for it. Enticed by a $1 million bonus offer from his sponsor, Speedo (and many millions more in additional endorsement opportunities), he will enter multiple events.

Though Bob Bowman, Michael's coach, has not yet revealed which events he'll enter, he'll probably swim both flys, both IMs, the 200 back and the 100 and 200 free. That's seven individual events, giving him a shot at a mind-boggling 10 Olympic gold medals.

But he's by no means a shoo-in. He should win both IMs and the 200 fly. That's three. And he should definitely finish in the top six in the 100 and 200 free, putting him on both free relay teams, though both teams will face very stiff opposition in Athens.

After that, it gets tough. Very tough.

In the 100 fly, he faces Ian Crocker, who beat him at last year's Worlds with a world record, and added a short course WR in March. He has to beat Crocker not only to win gold in the 100 fly, but also to land the fly berth on the medley relay team, which should be a heavy favorite at Athens. The edge goes to Crocker.

Then there's the 200 back, where he ranks No. 2 all time. But the guy who ranks No. 1, Aaron Peirsol, has every intention of standing on top of the victory stand. Another close race, with the edge going to Peirsol.

Even if he falls short of 10 or seven gold medals, even if he "only" wins five or so golds and a handful of medals of lesser metals, young Michael is sure to turn in performances that will keep the world of swimming buzzing for years.

Ian and Gary
There will be other great stories coming out of Long Beach. Ian Crocker, the first Olympic swimmer from Maine, will be making his bid for a multi-medal Olympiad. The world record holder in the 100 fly will be going for gold in his specialty, which will also give him a spot on the USA's medley relay squad. But he may give the 50, 100 and 200 freestyle a go, too.

He set a short course WR in the 100 at NCAAs, blasting Alex Popov's decade-old standard and, at the very least, should earn a berth on the 400 free relay team. Though only ranked 27th in the U.S. in the 200 free, his workout times indicate to us that he should swim fast enough to make the 800 free relay. And the 50 free, ofttimes, is anybody's race.

So, if all goes well, there's a potential for seven golds for Ian, though three or four would be a spectacular, and a more likely, outcome.

One of the major obstacles standing in Ian's way is swimming's "Mr. Personality," Gary Hall Jr., 29. In two previous Olympiads, Gary has earned eight medals, four gold and two each of silver and bronze. If he can match his two previous four-medal performances, he'll have a total of 12, one more than the record 11 by Mark Spitz.

If he just makes the team, he, along with his dad, Dr. Gary Hall Sr., will make Olympic history. They will become the first father-son duo to compete in three Olympic Games.

Hall, whose courage in competing at the highest level of international sport while suffering from diabetes is universally admired, will be shooting for the 50 and 100 freestyle events, and for berths on both the 400 free and medley relays.

Natalie, Amanda, Lindsay and Jenny
Then there's Natalie Coughlin, of course. Nat also has multi-gold medal potential, perhaps as many as eight. But her coach, Teri McKeever, is likely to keep the events her prot‚g‚e swims to a more manageable number. Still, Natalie is incredibly versatile, she holds American or world marks in free, back, fly and IM, and is a gold medal threat every time she gets wet.

Several other women have their eyes on multiple medals. Amanda Beard, the most consistent woman swimmer in the world the last two years and the "hottest" female marketing property in the land, could win as many as five. Again, though, three is a more likely number.

Lindsay Benko, short course WR-holder in the 200 and 400 free, would like to win four to crown her career. Meanwhile, Jenny Thompson, at 31, will be looking to add to her record total of Olympic medals and will still be searching for that elusive first individual gold.

Written two months before the first splash, here's SWIM Magazine's view of how the Trials appear to be shaping up.

DAY ONE: July 7
Finals: Men's 400 IM, Men's 400 Free, Women's 400 IM
Semifinals: Women's 100 Fly, Men's 100 Breast

Men's 400 IM
When Michael Phelps set his world record of 4:09.09 in the 400 IM last year, it came on the last day of the World Championships after a grueling week of world-class swimming every single day.

This time, the 400 IM comes on the first day of competition, both at Trials and in Athens. That means Michael will be swimming what may well be his best event fresh. And that means the kid, if he decides to instill a bit of genuine "shock and awe" in his opponents, may lay it all on the line. If he does so, look for a WR swim somewhere in the 4:05-4:06 range (just to leave a little room for improvement at the Big O's).

The battle for the second spot should be monumental, with a sub-4:10 effort probably needed to earn an Olympic berth.

Our picks: 1. Michael Phelps. 2. Erik Vendt.

Capable of upsetting: Tom Wilkens, Ryan Lochte.

Men's 400 Free
A lot of the same swimmers compete in the 400 IM and 400 free, but since the events come back-to-back in Long Beach, most will have to make a choice. With Australia's Ian Thorpe and Grant Hackett lurking on the horizon, top-ranked Michael Phelps (3:46.73) probably will skip this event. That should make the 400 free a wide open race.

Our picks: 1. Klete Keller. 2. Chad Carvin.

Could make it: Larsen Jensen, Erik Vendt, Robert Margalis, Peter Vanderkaay, Justin Mortimer.

Women's 400 IM
Here's another event where no one is a lock. On the face of it, Maggie Bowen, silver medalist at the 2001 Worlds, should be favored off her 4:39.08. But she'll have to beat a rejuvenated Kaitlin Sandeno, 15-year-old phenom Katie Hoff from Michael Phelps' North Baltimore team, as well as other strong medleyists, including 2000 Olympian Maddie Crippen, Kristin Caverly, Sara McLarty, Emily Mason and another newbie, Julia Smit. Out on limb: look for Hoff to break Summer Sanders' American record.

Our picks: 1. Katie Hoff. 2. Kaitlin Sandeno.

Don't rule out: Maggie Bowen, Emily Mason.

DAY TWO: July 8
Finals: Women's 100 Fly, Men's 100 Breast, Women's 400 Free
Semifinals: Women's 100 Back, Men's 200 Free, Women's 100 Breast, Men's 100 Back

Women's 100 Fly
There are 12 entrants in the 100 fly with times under a minute, 24 under 1:01. Only two have broken 59, and they both have gone 57-high. If anyone is going to beat Natalie Coughlin or Jenny Thompson, the 2003 world champ, it will take a phenomenal effort.

Our picks: 1. Jenny Thompson. 2. Natalie Coughlin.

Long shots: Mary DeScenza, Dana Vollmer, Shelly Ripple, Misty Hyman.

Men's 100 Breast
This is another event where the top two guys, Ed Moses and Brendan Hansen, appear to be head-and-shoulders above the rest. The co-American record holders (1:00.21), both feel they have something to prove, Ed, that he can win the big ones; Brendan, that he can overcome having twice finished third in 2000.

Our picks: 1. Brendan Hansen. 2. Ed Moses.

More long shots: Mark Gangloff, Scott Usher.

Women's 400 Free
Off her record, Diana Munz (4:07.87) has a huge, two-second advantage on the rest of the field. What's more, she's always risen to the occasion when it counts. But somehow, Diana seems vulnerable. Among the 19 swimmers who have gone 4:14 or better, veterans Lindsay Benko, Kaitlin Sandeno and Rachel Komisarz will be in the hunt. So, too, will be hungry youngsters Kalyn Keller and Mary Hill. Don't forget defending Olympic champ, Brooke Bennett, coming back after double shoulder surgery.

Our picks: 1. Diana Munz. 2. Kalyn Keller.

Definitely could make it: Brooke Bennett, Lindsay Benko, Mary Hill, Emily Mason.

DAY THREE: July 9
Finals: Men's 200 Free, Women's 100 Back, Men's 100 Back, Women's 100 Breast
Semifinals: Women's 200 Free, Men's 200 Fly, Women's 200 IM

Men's 200 Free
It seems as though everyone is going for one of the six spots up for grabs in this event. Phelps should win, possibly with a 1:44 performance. Second-place appears to be a battle between Klete Keller and Nate Dusing. Thirty-one-year-old Josh Davis has a good shot at making his third Olympic team, while Ian Crocker and Aaron Peirsol could surprise.

Our picks: 1. Michael Phelps. 2. Klete Keller.

On the relay: Nate Dusing, Ian Crocker, Aaron Peirsol, Josh Davis.

Looking to upset: Scott Goldblatt, Chad Carvin, Jayme Cramer.

Women's 100 Back
Natalie, the only woman ever under a minute, should have the top spot locked up. After that, you pick 'em from among the 14 women who have gone 1:01 or 1:02.

Our picks: 1. Natalie Coughlin. 2. Haley Cope.

A good shot at No. 2: Diana MacManus, Courtney Shealy, Hayley McGregory, Margaret Hoelzer.

Men's 100 Back
Oh, what a lovely war! Though this event is loaded, WR-holder Lenny Krayzelburg (53.60) and world champion Aaron Peirsol (53.61) should get the nods. One slip, and there's a horde of world-class backstrokers eager to step up, including 33-year-old Jeff Rouse (the 1996 Olympic champ) and short course WR-holder Peter Marshall.

Our picks: 1. Aaron Peirsol. 2. Lenny Krayzelburg.

Can upset: Randall Bal, Peter Marshall, Jeff Rouse, James Westcott, Neil Walker.

Women's 100 Breast
Three women appear to have the best shots at the two Olympic team slots. Megan Quann is the AR-holder; defending Olympic champion, Tara Kirk, just set the short course WR; and Amanda Beard was second at Worlds last year.

Our picks: 1. Amanda Beard. 2. Tara Kirk.

Don't count out: Megan Quann, Kristy Kowal, Stacianna Stitts, Jessica Hardy.

DAY FOUR: July 10
Finals: Women's 200 Free, Men's 200 Fly, Women's 200 IM
Semifinals: Men's 100 Free, Women's 200 Fly, Men's 200 Breast

Women's 200 Free
Just as in the men's 200, the women's race features a horde of legitimate contenders, with nine women under 2:00, 12 more at 2:01 and 24 more at 2:02. Lindsay Benko, last year's world leader, and Natalie Coughlin should go 1-2. After that, it's a scramble, with several high school kids likely to make it.

Our picks: 1. Lindsay Benko. 2. Natalie Coughlin.

Relay swimmers: Rhi Jeffrey, Dana Vollmer, Mary Hill, Gaby Rose.

Could make relay: Mary Hill, Diana Munz, Colleen Lann‚, Amanda Beard, Jessica Foschi.

Men's 200 Fly
This should be a no-brainer. Michael Phelps is the world record holder (1:53.93) and Tom Malchow (1:55.03) is the defending Olympic champion. Only Michael Raab is within three seconds of the leaders.

Our picks: 1. Michael Phelps. 2. Tom Malchow.

If someone slips off the blocks: Michael Raab, Eric Donnelly, Jayme Cramer.

Women's 200 IM
In contrast to the previous race, this one features several legitimate contenders for the two available slots. Maggie Bowen, the 2001 world champion, is top-seeded at 2:11.93, but Kaitlin Sandeno and Amanda Beard are only about a second behind. Gaby Rose, the big surprise in 2000, has also been looking good lately, while Katie Hoff or Whitney Myers could surprise. If Natalie swims this race, which is unlikely, all bets are off.

Our picks: 1. Amanda Beard. 2. Kaitlin Sandeno.

Legit challengers: Natalie Coughlin (if she swims), Maggie Bowen, Gaby Rose, Katie Hoff, Whitney Myers.

DAY FIVE: July 11
Finals: Men's 200 Breast, Women's 200 Fly, Men's 100 Free
Semifinals: Women's 100 Free, Men's 200 Back, Women's 200 Breast, Men's 200 IM

Men's 200 Breast
Once again, this race should pit Ed Moses vs. Brendan Hansen, both of whom have gone 2:10s and both of whom have targeted Japan's Kosuke Kitajima. No one else is under 2:13.

Our picks: 1. Brendan Hansen. 2. Ed Moses.

Remote shots: Dave Denniston, Gary Marshall, Kyle Salyards, Mark Gangloff.

Women's 200 Fly
On paper, Mary DeScenza (2:08.38) and Kaitlin Sandeno (2:08.52) are two seconds ahead of the rest of the field. They are definite favorites, but this race appears to be entirely up for grabs, with Emily Mason, comebacking Shelly Ripple, Dana Kirk, 15-year-old Elaine Breeden and several others in the hunt. Don't dismiss 2000 Olympic champion Misty Hyman. It should take a 2:07-high to 2:08-low to make the team.

Our picks: 1. Kaitlin Sandeno. 2. Misty Hyman.

On any given day: Mary DeScenza, Emily Mason, Shelly Ripple, Dana Kirk, Elaine Breeden, Noelle Bassi, Whitney Myers, et al.

Men's 100 Free
This won't be a race; it will be another war. Jason Lezak is seeded No. 1 going in, and he'll be tough. But challenges will come from Michael Phelps, Scott Tucker and Neil Walker, among others. Look for these three guys to be in the mix: Ian Crocker, Gary Hall Jr. (despite the fact that he has a best of 51.02 the last three years) and, yes, Sabir Muhammad.

Our picks: 1. Gary Hall Jr. 2. Ian Crocker.

Relay swimmers: Jason Lezak, Michael Phelps, Scott Tucker, Sabir Muhammad.

Don't count out: Neil Walker, Nate Dusing.

DAY SIX: July 12
Finals: Women's 200 Breast, Men's 200 Back, Men's 200 IM, Women's 100 Free
Semifinals: Men's 50 Free, Women's 200 Back, Men's 100 Fly

Women's 200 Breast
Once again, three tough contenders will be going for the two available spots. Amanda Beard, who tied the WR (2:22.99) in winning the world title last year, has to be the favorite. Going for the second spot are Kristy Kowal (2:25.84), the 2000 Olympic silver medalist; and Tara Kirk, who vaulted into contention with a PR of 2:26.37 recently. Three others who could rise to the occasion: Megan Quann, Caroline Bruce and Jessica Hardy.

Our picks: 1. Amanda Beard. 2. Tara Kirk.

Definite threats: Kristy Kowal, Megan Quann, Caroline Bruce, Jessica Hardy.

Men's 200 Back
This is another race where the top two guys appear to have a lock on the two available slots. Aaron Peirsol holds the WR (1:55.15), while Michael Phelps is No. 2 all-time. So dominant are these two men that defending Olympic champion Lenny Krayzelburg might not even contest the event!

Our picks: 1. Aaron Peirsol. 2. Michael Phelps.

Just in case: Ray Hunt, Mark Liscinsky.

Men's 200 IM
Michael Phelps is untouchable in this event, but it comes immediately after his very tough 200 backstroke race. Despite having only a few short minutes' rest, Michael is still the man to beat. The battle for No. 2 should be a doozy, with Phelps' NBAC teammate Kevin Clements a slight favorite. Don't count out 2000 Olympic bronze medalist Tom Wilkens.

Our picks: 1. Michael Phelps. 2. Kevin Clements.

Battling for the second spot: Ryan Lochte, Tom Wilkens, Nate Dusing.

Women's 100 Free
The women's 100 free will showcase a battle of the generations. Jenny Thompson, 31, will captain the old-timers, while high schooler Amanda Weir, 18, will head up the rookies. Experience probably will trump youth and enthusiasm for the top two spots, but this is an awesome field in which anything can happen.

Our picks: 1. Natalie Coughlin. 2. Jenny Thompson.

Relay swimmers: Kara Lynn Joyce, Amanda Weir, Lindsay Benko, Rhi Jeffrey.

Definite maybes: Colleen Lann‚, Maritza Correia, Tammy Stone, Christina Swindle, et al.

DAY SEVEN: July 13
Finals: Women's 200 Back, Men's 100 Fly, Women's 800 Free, Men's 50 Free
Semifinals: Women's 50 Free

Women's 200 Back
If Natalie decides to swim the 200 back, an event in which she is the American record holder and was the world leader last year, she should win. But she doesn't particularly like it and may opt out, leaving the race to Margaret Hoelzer, whose best time is right behind Nat's. No one else is within two-and-a-half seconds of Hoelzer.

Our picks: 1. Natalie Coughlin. 2. Margaret Hoelzer.

If opportunity knocks: Jamie Reid, Diana MacManus.

Men's 100 Fly
Ben Michaelson is one of the fastest butterflyers in the world. Unfortunately, the two faster Americans, Ian Crocker and Michael Phelps, are the two swiftest in history. They should battle for the gold in Athens.

Our picks: 1. Ian Crocker. 2. Michael Phelps.

Hoping for a breakthrough: Ben Michaelson, Tommy Hannan.

Women's 800 Free
Diana Munz, with her 8:24.19 last year, is the class of this field, but with 15 women under 8:40, there's no shortage of challengers. Double defending Olympic champion Brooke Bennett is making a comeback after surgery and looking better every day. The only question: will she be ready by July?

Our picks: 1. Diana Munz. 2. Brooke Bennett.

Worthy challengers: Kalyn Keller, Katie Ziegler, Hayley Peirsol, Kaitlin Sandeno, Adrienne Binder, Alyssa Kiel.

Men's 50 Free
Once again, the sprint freestyle may come down to Jason Lezak, who ranked No. 1 in the world in 2002, vs. Gary Hall, the American record holder and 2000 co-Olympic champion: two guys who aren't overly fond of each other. Potential spoiler: Ian Crocker.

Our picks: 1. Gary Hall Jr. 2. Jason Lezak.

Contenders: Ian Crocker, Sabir Muhammad, Aaron Ciarla, Scott Tucker.

DAY EIGHT: July 14
Finals: Women's 50 Free, Men's 1500 Free

Women's 50 Free
The final women's race will be a free-for-all, with at least 10 women having a legitimate shot at making the team. Jenny Thompson probably has the edge, but Kara Lynn Joyce impressed everyone at NCAAs. Whoever wins, she will have to be under 25 seconds to be competitive in Athens.

Our picks: 1. Kara Lynn Joyce. 2. Jenny Thompson.

Could make it: Haley Cope, Maritza Correia, Amanda Weir, Tammie Stone, Colleen Lann‚, Christina Swindle, et al.

Men's 1500 Free
With Chris Thompson, the Sydney bronze medalist and American record holder temporarily sidelined by injury, the favorites become Eric Vendt and Larsen Jensen. However, don't count Thompson out. He's kicking up a storm in Michigan and should be fully recovered come July.

Our picks: 1. Erik Vendt. 2. Larsen Jensen.

Definite threats: Chris Thompson, Robert Margalis, Peter Vanderkaay, Fran Crippen.

Catch the Latest News from U.S. Olympic Trials on SwimInfo and SwimInfoTV

There will be literally hundreds of great stories at the 2004 Olympic Trials, hot, young phenoms; comebackers; athletes who have overcome great odds. We'll bring them all to you in SWIM Magazine and on www.SwimInfo.com, as well as our latest venture, Swimming World TV.